tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11674586649135314432024-03-05T20:28:26.024+08:00在市場提款Big money is made in the stock market by being on the right side of the major moves.CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-34132004001745909422019-08-17T20:34:00.000+08:002019-08-17T20:34:54.564+08:00Stan Weinstein 沽空術<div>
<b><u>沽空要點:</u></b></div>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">跌市速度遠快於升市。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">不要沽空成交量低的股票,平倉導致股價大升會造成麻煩。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">不要沽空第2期的股票。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">不要沽空強勢行業的股票。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">永遠要設止平倉位。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">沽空程序:</li>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">確認熊市/大市熊走勢。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">選取弱勢行業:行業股價在30週線下、相對強度低、熊圖表型態、行業內多個股票圖表呈相同弱勢。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">個股圖表:見頂前有大幅升勢,股價遠在支持位之上。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">相對強度弱。</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">在向下突破時沽,或者在第4期 keep 住沽(只要股價在30週線下整固並持續向下突破)</li>
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沽空的時機:A、B、C 點。如股票之前出現頭肩走勢更佳。</div>
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開了任何沽空部位後,必須設定 Good-till-cancel 的 buy stop,保障自己。Stan Weinstein 建議在 C 點開倉,之後的 buy-stop 可以有幾種處理方法:</div>
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<li>如果是較長線的投資者:開倉後以 B 點作 buy-stop。如反彈位(即下圖的 E 點)高於30wk MA,以E 點為 buy-stop;若反彈沒超越 30週 MA 則以 30wk MA 作 buy-stop。股價一直下跌則將 buy-stop 根據 30wk MA 推低(即下圖的 J、K、L點)。如果到某個位置低位橫行(即股價有機會已進入 stage 1),則以橫行區的頂部作 buy-stop (下圖M點)。</li>
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<li>如果是較短線的投機者:則以下圖 D、F、N、J 點作 buy-stop</li>
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<li>如果走勢有 trendline 出現(定義為有至少三個接觸點),則可選擇採用 trendline 做 buy-stop,如下圖。</li>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-55642913682635630922019-08-17T14:46:00.000+08:002019-08-17T14:54:31.267+08:00債息曲線<br />
本週仍然是債券黃金跑贏,中國股市因放風有救市措施有一些反彈,環球股票多跌。<br />
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近斯最多人談論債息曲線倒掛出現。下圖是 2/10年 yield curve,低於 0 即倒掛。<br />
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Yield curve inversion 預視經濟收縮,當中理論好多人已論及,不贅。不過,我比較關心股票價格的影響多於實體經濟。下圖顯示,當債息曲線由斜--平--倒掛的過程,股票的價格趨升;倒轉,當債息曲線倒掛後,由倒掛--平--斜的轉變中,股票價格趨跌。至於曲線開始變斜多久會有大跌市,每次周期都有些不同。<br />
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我個人相信,以上屬輔助指標,Timing 其實每次不同,當坊間幾乎所有 pundit 都懂得 yeild curve 倒掛 12-24 個月才出現衰退和資產價格逆轉等資料,市場這個 TGH (The Great Humiliator) 往進會出現令人意想不到的走勢,尤其我們已經過了一個歷史上最長的擴張周期,這一點要特別留意。回歸基本,看資產價格趨勢本身,更容易知所進退。</div>
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首先是主角美國長債 (TLT,下圖),價格上升之急,可媲美 2008年。</div>
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下圖是非美國全球股票 (ACWX) 和新興市場股票 (EEM) 週線圖,其實走勢差不多 (歐洲類似 e.g. VGK)。2018年2月後進入了下跌周期(即熊市),2018年12月反彈後 2019年4月開始橫行至今,到本月開始這個 trading range 汲汲可危,係 undercut & rally 定係熊市二期後再跌過,好快會知道。傳統技術分析,價格在 trading range 底部糾纏愈久,向下的機會愈大。</div>
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下圖是香港大型股週線圖 (FXI),8月的下跌裂口,屬極壞的熊走勢,造淡理所當然。至於有人問為何做 FXI 而不做 EWH,純綷是自己習慣問題。</div>
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當然我並非熊博士,仍然做長倉,不過,如果連 NBIX 咁靚既 VCP、SW 買入訊號股票,再加 >1R 贏利在手,最後都唔 work 的話,我的戒心無可避免會大幅增加。</div>
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目前做倉屬牛熊共舞咁做,一手長 NBIX、一手短 NFLX 等之類的手法,靜待趨勢的明確開展。</div>
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上圖為納指日線圖,納指在這浪最多跌大約 8%,目前離高位 4.6%,週四試回 50天線失敗。(納指 2018年10-12月跌 24%,2019年 5月跌10%)<br />
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上圖為羅素2000 指數日線圖,七月高位無法創新高,這浪跌穿 200天線,1460-1472點為重要的支持位,亦要留意 2019年的高位離2018年的最高點仍有距離,升市細價股並沒跟上。<br />
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如上圖,在 200天線上的股票數量為 45%。</div>
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總體非美國的股票(歐股、日股、總新興市場等)走勢與羅素2000指數類似。中國股市弱,港股直頭是熊市。</div>
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究竟 2018年美股是否一個熊市?如果界定指數跌超過 20% 為熊市,那可能是。以目前的資訊發達程度、ETF 盛行、程式交易等等的改變,道氏講的傳統的熊市會否已改變為 2011、2015、2018 等兩三個月就了事的急跌,還是如好多人所講,目前是 secular bull market,之後有一個更大型的熊市或者金融危機將會發生?</div>
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真係唔知道,個人睇法為短線波動或調整未完,自己用的 Z4+30 訊號未出中長線的警號。所以策略上,主要是拆掉弱勢、贏利不多的長倉,盡量保持或者趁機買進強股,同時做弱股的短倉,以減低整體回報的 downside,到市況改善,逐漸拆掉短倉和加更多長倉。目前這策略仍可幫我將 downside 控制在 2% 以內,當然,最大唔好處係比較麻煩和花精神。</div>
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舉個例,NFLX 是我七月底一直在做的淡倉,此股弱勢極明顯,我在紫色箭咀的位置貼住 200天線開始做,週線圖亦是一個好明顯的 Stan Weinstein 30週線淡勢。另一隻我一直做的 TAL,理由基本上差不多。</div>
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長倉的強股,例子如 TDG 亦好明顯。另一隻 NBIX,都有VCP 和 Stan Weinstein 買入的型態。</div>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-4103858797509910952019-01-05T11:01:00.001+08:002019-01-05T11:01:26.423+08:002019 開局一月四日 IBD 認為屬美股觸底第七日出 follow-through day (個人看法納指無法確認)。Z4 +30 無買入訊號,週線圖仍是 Stan Weinstein Stage 4(下圖),GEM 系統訊號是持有債券(AGG)。<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xE84KJght3Q/XDAQJYXzVoI/AAAAAAAAFO0/11avD6EedkAKKdKHZ-VKYI7QgPTeDuDbwCLcBGAs/s1600/Screenshot%2B2019-01-05%2Bat%2B10.01.57%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="766" data-original-width="1287" height="380" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xE84KJght3Q/XDAQJYXzVoI/AAAAAAAAFO0/11avD6EedkAKKdKHZ-VKYI7QgPTeDuDbwCLcBGAs/s640/Screenshot%2B2019-01-05%2Bat%2B10.01.57%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
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Sector 仍是防守類別領先:<br />
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燈神指標 Investors Intelligence 看牛的比例到達低於三成的低位,看熊的比例超前至 35%,相信短線反彈非常有可能。<br />
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我仍未選擇進場,主要波幅仍大,沒有低風險的介入機會,而任何我用的指標都未有買有訊號,相信 2019 仍是考驗耐性既時候。<br />
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10月各大市場大跌之時,巴西算表現最唔錯既市場,EWZ 竟然十月首週出現 Stan Weinstein buy signal,十一月後 SCTR 穩坐 90以上。我們就要等美股出現這種走勢改變,才能輕鬆進場。<br />
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<br />CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-26268257287243088692018-12-22T23:02:00.002+08:002021-09-12T15:09:45.056+08:002018下半年回顧<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-weight: 700;">如之前的回顧(</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b><a href="https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2018/06/blog-post.html">https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2018/06/blog-post.html</a>),盡量避免用倒後鏡的方法來評論。</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>六月美股氣勢如虹,尤其是細價股,進入拋物線式上升。但港股、新興市場以及歐股卻進入熊市。自己當時屬長倉 overload 狀態,而大量股票去到六月下旬已明顯過火(over-extended),到月底美股出現多個派貨日,而各持倉亦因擊中 back-stop、或者 stop-loss 而自動減持。</b></span><br />
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<b><span style="color: purple;">該股價格是否過火(over-extended):</span></b></div>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: purple;">沒絕對準則,視股該股的歷史波幅而定,不過一般而言,股價高於 50天線 30-40% 以上,或高於 10天線 20%以上,多數會回吐或整固,屬「人性永遠不變」的市場心理現象。</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: purple;">由於我希望捕捉 30-60天的重要價格走勢,而 50天移動平均線為一般市場交易者極重視的指標。</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: purple;">我自己以前傾向股價升過 50天線 20% 沽一半,升過50天線 40%沽清 (或者設 back-stop)。舉例 $100 是 40% above 50d MA,但股價升至 $105,我將 stop-loss 放在 $100。〔目前已很少這樣做〕</span></li>
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我六月底亦出了一堆風險管理、selling rules 的文章,有興趣可以 review 下。到 6月24日,我的網誌講到,美股20個交易日有5個派貨日,升勢遇阻,而<span style="color: purple;">美股之前已強到一個點,連通街 average Joe 都知,弱者都跑到美股去搵食,我好有戒心</span>,並大幅減倉,甚至到達淨短倉的狀態,而短倉亦頗容易有一些收獲。<br />
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<span style="font-weight: 700;"> 到7月份,我的倉位很小,只有大約 25%左右,主要斬獲在於小型股和生化股的投機,感覺長倉比 5-6 月難做得多,</span><b><span style="color: purple;">指數闖高位,但股價波動好大(估計市場有好大堆資金,明知個市好 over-extended,一有風吹草動就拆倉),好難駕馭,所以一直保持低度參予,我認為這段時間能夠忍手,是我今年保住今年勝果的關鍵。</span><span style="color: blue;">一般心態是見指數破頂,怕執輸之下會盡量滿倉,通常是兩種後果:一直不斷被震走 (killed by thousand cuts)、或者是信心過度而跌幅擴大都沒有離場(因為指數仍然無恙)。</span></b></div>
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8-9月美股在高位震盪,羅素2000指數和納指九月衝高失敗,不少股票早已不知不覺間低於 200天線,再加上10月初的急跌,其實是危險的訊號;再加上 10月本身都是一個股災的月份,大幅調整的機會甚高。10月初選了幾檔中國股票和一些動力股來造空,收獲不錯。<span style="color: purple;">不過造空始終較造好困難得多,因為下跌趨勢中波幅通常巨大,在急跌與夾倉之間,個股的淡倉連 Druckenmiller 這種神級人物都覺得難搞,並非只是倒轉幅股價圖來睇咁簡單。</span></div>
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10月10日,IBD 50 指數(動力股指標)自 2016年以來首次確認穿 200天線,翌日羅素 2000 和納指都穿 200天線,亦觸及中線的 Z4+30 訊號,<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">10月24日美股</span></td></tr>
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之後波幅好大,市場多處於超賣狀態,11月有些反彈,好多人包括某投資比賽冠軍的 private access 都<span style="color: purple;">認為這是 correction in a secular bull market,建議反彈開始介入,我置若罔聞,基於以下原則:</span></div>
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<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>巨大波動下極難贏利。</b></span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>股價低於 30週線(甚至低於 200 天線)、Stan Weinstein stage 3 or 4 都不宜做好(更不用說要在 50天線上的目標非常難找)。</b></span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>Z4+30 沒買入訊號。</b></span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>個股鮮有理想做長倉的 setup。</b></span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>試了兩三次極少量的 test buy 都是止損告終。</b></span></li>
<li><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>好多大跌市跌勢最急那一段<u>之前</u>,市場已經屬超賣狀態,並非超賣就必會反彈,反而確立跌勢後的超賣環境,係好危險並且要好小心既時候。</b></span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>到 12月更加不用多想,已講過多次,次級調整多數兩腳完,出第三腳幾乎肯定熊市,不少昔日股王已被腰斬(例如 NVDA、SQ等),跌超過兩三成的股票一大堆,其實此刻才從牛市夢驚醒,已經太遲。下圖粉紅字指出非美環球股票(啡色幼線為 ACWX 30wMA),在1月高位回落後已進入 Stan Weinstein stage 3 (SW3),到5月已進入 SW4;而美股10月突然急跌和追跌,幾乎沒有幾過 SW3(因反彈極弱)自動進入 SW4(藍粗線為 NASDAQ 30wMA)。這圖非常清楚,不論是IBD50、納指、羅素 2000、標普等,幾乎同一時間入 SW4,只是跌勢有幾急的分別。[右上角顯示納指本週跌 8.36%,其實幾猛]。</b></span></div>
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如果年底前無大變 (相信應該無大變),2019年1月 GEM 投資法要轉入 AGG (債券)了。不過,當通街 Average Joe 都認為係熊市時,市場又可能會有另一番轉機。做投機者,最重要是 open mind。</div>
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<b><span style="color: purple; font-size: large;">其實講咁多,重點都係想講,最重要是以下兩幅圖,不論任何情況,記住佢,必定不會出大問題。</span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #1d2129;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>CUP6ETF、MTUM 組合由於觸及 Z4+30 沽出訊號,已全部清倉持有現金;GEM 繼續持有 SPY。YTD回報:CUP6ETF -2.55%、MTUM Z4+30 +1.86%、GEM -5.18%。(最後 CUP6ETF 和 MTUM Z4+30 跑贏 GEM ??)</b></span></span></div>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-20766891565861375962018-11-25T11:54:00.000+08:002018-11-25T11:54:01.875+08:00美股是否進入熊市美股是否進入熊市好多人關注,所謂一圖勝千言,可先看圖再講。<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">IBD 50 指數 ETF 週線圖</td></tr>
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各大指數都在 30週線下運行,而根據 CAN SLIM 選股的動力股指標 IBD 50指數更熊到無朋友,已穿二月低位、30週線向下、SCTR 跌至低單位數的 2.7。<b><span style="color: purple;">點解要提 IBD 50指數?因為好多人選股原則其實似 IBD 50 (包括我自己),IBD 50的走勢比隨時比任何指數更能反映自己長倉(如果買入並持有)的表現。IBD 50指數近一個月 跌 10.7%、由今年高位回落 25%,其實已進入熊區,這亦反映為何活躍的投資者(包括散戶和基金經理),今年遠遠跑輸死牛持有 SPY 的原因。</span></b>短線看,納指本週跌 5%,怎看都不是什麼好徵兆。YTD 回報納指已縮至 2.8%。<br />
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至於 big stocks,最紅的 FAANG 由高位回落:<br />
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<li>FB -39.7%</li>
<li>AMZN -26.7%</li>
<li>AAPL -25.9%</li>
<li>NFLX -38.8%</li>
<li>GOOGL -20.2%</li>
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其他都好紅的股票:</div>
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<li>SQ -37.3%</li>
<li>NVDA -50.5%</li>
<li>BA -20.4%</li>
<li>MU -43.7%</li>
<li>ABMD -34.9%</li>
<li>ALGN -45.1%</li>
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Hold 得比較好、近期跑贏的都是防守性股票,情況比較似熊市二期多過牛市反彈。真正牛市,動力型增長股應沒那麼不濟。</div>
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個人操作方面,NFLX 平了一半淡倉收割贏利,另一半維持,其他全 cash。我好耐都未試過咁舒服地持有一檔淡倉幾乎整個月,而股票波幅都唔係細;而幾乎全 cash 的情況下,近兩三個月最多只操作兩至三檔倉位,回報已可拋離大市。<b><span style="color: purple;">重點永遠都是,同時操作幾多檔股票沒有所謂,重要是贏錢的倉位多和大於輸錢的倉位,並不斷重覆</span></b>,這是我在 Mark Minervini 身上學到最重要的東西(他當前選什麼股票我並不在意)。 所謂投資「組合」,在散戶而言,並沒太大意義。</div>
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港股更不用多講,高位回落最低至 26.6%,近期反彈後都回 22.6%;整個走勢根本熊市,基本上已好少爭議。</div>
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我在 facebook 專頁個 poll,牛市熊市票數大約 50:50、市面的 Psychological indicator 顯示多好多人看熊。不過,看個別股票更實際,隻隻跌兩三成起碼,如整個下跌過程都沒任何防範措施,risk management 係好有問題。<b><span style="color: purple;">Minervini 的 50/80 rules 好到肉,即係話如我所講的當紅 "big stocks" (secular bull leaders) ,隻股票散水後, 有80% 機會跌50%、有50%機會跌 80%,累試不爽。</span></b>不過,像我的風格是 trade 30-60 days secondary swing 的話,牛熊爭辯、50/80 的 trap 多數已經避免。</div>
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另外一提,<b><span style="color: purple;">為何一般建議的止損都在 7-10% 的 range,只是簡單的數學原理</span></b>,因為損失超過 10%以上的話,要更大的回報才可以 breakeven:</div>
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<li>損失 20%,要賺 25%才回本</li>
<li>損失 30%,要賺多於 40% 才回本</li>
<li>損失 1/3,要賺 50% 才回本</li>
<li>損失 50%,要賺 1倍 才回本</li>
<li>損失 80%,要賺 5倍才回本</li>
<li>損失 90%,要賺 9倍才回本</li>
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為免造成無可挽救的損失,這個簡單數學觀念,所有投資人都應銘記於心。</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>CUP6ETF、MTUM 組合由於觸及 Z4+30 沽出訊號,已全部清倉持有現金;GEM 繼續持有 SPY。YTD回報:CUP6ETF -2.55%、MTUM Z4+30 +1.86%、GEM +2.88%</b></span></span><br />
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<br />CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-90539629018416332232018-11-03T11:08:00.000+08:002018-11-03T11:16:11.786+08:00反轉?10-11月交替,股市反彈,港股在貿易戰緩和的消息下出現 follow-through day,單日升過千點,1700億成交。不過要留意:1)IBD 這個指標沒有在港股/中國市場驗證過、2)在美國市場 IBD Distribution/follow-through day (D/F day) 指標有 25-30%的失敗率。但當前恒指遠低於 200天線,亦已升至接近 50天線的阻力,(Stan Weinstein stage 4) SWS 4 和 200天線向下都是熊市走勢。當然,熊市反彈可以好勁,不能小看;而另外會唔會做到巴西股市的那種牛走勢,亦要密切留意。<br />
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美股方面,亦都有反彈,但仍未有任何 IBD D/F day 或者 Z4+30的買入訊號,各大指數仍然低於 200天線,納指在 10月18日後持續低於 200天線(7500點是重要的心理關口)。不過利好的指標是看牛的人已由 6成減至 4成。整週仍在觀察沒什麼行動,週五在 NFLX 反彈至頭肩頸線 / 20天線左右試沽,看看有什麼結果。並不代表我特別看淡,試做一下感受方向,我覺得兩邊機會仍是 50/50。會否像月初所講,調整 15%-20% 左右就完,拭目以待。<br />
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif;"><span style="color: purple;">CUP6ETF、MTUM 組合由於觸及 Zweig 4+10/30 沽出訊號,已全部清倉持有現金</span></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-weight: 700;">;GEM 繼續持有 SPY。</span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif;"><u>YTD回報:</u></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-weight: 700;">CUP6ETF -2.55%、MTUM Z4+10/30 +1.86%、GEM +4.33%</span>CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-53529192717071435062018-10-28T16:32:00.000+08:002018-10-29T13:28:38.272+08:00Z4+30 指標誰都想又快又準,早人一步,及早察覺大市的大趨勢轉變。要早那就免不了一些較敏感的指標,敏感的指標壞處是容易出現假訊號。要準亦免不了為等待更多確認,而變得太遲鈍。Zweig 4% rule 屬敏感的指標,Stan Weinstein 四階段屬準確的指標,兩者揉合,可互補不足。<br />
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<span style="color: purple;"><b>主要原則:</b>判斷大勢的核心是 Stan Weinstein 四階段,Zweig 4% rule 可幫我們及早察覺異動。</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">Martin Zweig 十年前為 Paul Tudor Jones 點名讚好的股市評論員,成功於 1987年警告投資者。他著作 "Winning on Wall Street -- How to Spot Market Trends Early, Which Stocks to Pick, and When to Buy and Sell for Peak Profits and Minimum Risk"(個書名實在好長,1986年成書,1997年最後修訂)提及諸種測市指標,當中有一個名為 4% rule 的測市指標非常有意思。</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">這屬一種動能和趨勢的指標,當整體股票指數單週的升幅超過 4% 為買入訊號,整體股票指數單週跌超過 4% 為沽出訊號。以 4% 為分界,分出真正促成大趨勢的動力,避免雜訊的小波動。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">不過,單用這個指標會有不少假訊號,必須配合其他指標,有減少訊號失誤。這是 Stan Weinstein 四階段進埸的時候。</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b><u>重溫 Stan Weinstein (SW) 四階段和 SW最佳買入時機:</u></b></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>第1期(整固期):</b>數月下跌後,開始橫行,成交量縮(第1期接近完結,成交量會上漲)。30週線開始由下降變平坦。</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>第2期(上升期):</b>屬理想的買入時期。價格突破阻力位及30週線,成交量大。通常起始上漲後有至少一次回調,回調愈淺,股票愈強。30週線在股價突破後向上,預期股價會衝兩步退一步,只要股價持續在30週線上,走勢仍佳。當30週線開始變平坦,而股價趨近30週線,要留意轉勢。</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>第3期(見頂期):</b>上升動能消失,股價在30週線上下橫行,成交量大而走勢波動古怪。</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>第4期(下降期):</b>股價向下突破支持位,30週線向下而股價在其下運行。</span></div>
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<b>以下兩幅經典插圖取自 Stan Weinstein 《多空操作秘笈》</b></div>
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之前我也會考慮 10週線和 30週線的關係,但如果考慮 primary trend、或者非常重要的 secondary trend 的話,發覺考慮 10週線會提供較多雜訊,故我在這個指標中將 10週線從今捨棄,以前的 Z4+10/30 會變成 Z4+30指標。</div>
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<b><u><span style="color: purple;">將兩者結合後,變為 Z4+30 指標得出以下規則:</span></u></b></div>
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<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">用 ETF VTI 來做整體股票的 proxy</span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>沽出訊號(以下任何一個條件觸及)</b></span></li>
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<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">如週線圖VTI 單週下跌超過 4%,並收市低於 30週線,為沽出訊號。</span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">如週線圖VTI 單週沒下跌超過 4%,但股價突破向下,並收於 30週線下,為沽出訊號。</span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">如沒出現買入訊號,沽出訊號維持。</span></li>
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<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><b>買入訊號(以下任何一個條件觸及)</b></span></li>
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<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">如週線圖VTI 上升超過 4%,並收市高於 30週線,為買入訊號。</span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">如週線圖VTI 單週沒上升超過 4%,但股價突破向上,並收於 30週線上,為買入訊號。</span></li>
<li><span style="color: purple; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">如沒出現沽出訊號,買入訊號維持。</span></li>
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重申以上只是提供一種方法觀看大市走勢,大市走勢可作個別股票操作的指引。舉例,如果有好的個股 setup,但 Z4+30 指標未出現買入訊號,仍想買進的話,可能會用細倉位或非常保守的策略,一旦 Z4+30 指標變為買入,那就可以做更進取的倉位,如此類推。亦不要忘記,任何系統都有機會出現假訊號。有人問過類似問題,會否出現買入訊號時屬熊市反彈(出現訊號時多數為反彈後期,可能失敗),而非熊去牛來。這是有可能的,不過若熊反彈的話,好快會再出現沽出訊號。亦如之前所講,這個指標屬參考,實際操作仍要看實際操作股票的 setup,像今次十月,我早在 9月底已剩很小 exposure,十月初甚至未出訊號已開始造空,及後出現訊號後操作更保守,就是這個原理。</div>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-63053932379911348072018-10-27T18:55:00.003+08:002018-10-27T18:59:54.233+08:00動力股進入熊區<br />
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本週美股繼續下挫,反彈乏力,各大指數繼續在 200天線下運行,成交仍大。羅素2000指數由高位回落 16.3%、納指高位回落 13.2%、標普500 高位回落 10.6%。<br />
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<b><span style="color: purple;">代表動力股的 IBD50 指數由高位回落 22%,已到熊市區域;亦由2016年以來,週線圖首次確認穿 30週線。</span></b>由高位回落計:ALGN -42%、GRUB -41%、FB -33%、NVDA -32%、NFLX -29%、AMZN -19%、GOOGL -19%。<br />
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其他市場,由高位回落計:MSCI 中國 -31.3%、MSCI 新興市場 -25.3%、恒指 -22%、STOXX 歐洲50 -18.2%、日經指數 -13.1%。<br />
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十月份的急跌頗深,令不少股票價格處於熊區,熊市的機會大增。<b><span style="color: purple;">散戶唯一的一手資訊就是閱讀市場價格的走勢,專家的意見只是雜訊</span>(<span style="color: blue;">如何提升閱讀市場價格的能力,可留意本欄舊文)</span><span style="color: purple;">。</span></b><b style="color: purple;">目前市場波幅巨大,並不值得參予,</b>個人操作上,倉位目前100% 持有現金。做長倉風險不用多說;由於向下已頗 extended 而急,做淡倉被夾的風險亦高。應等待市場波幅和交易量都變小,才考慮再進場。並不需要撈底,只要少犯錯和謹守紀律,用平常的方法去做,市況相就,自能得到豐厚回報。<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GUvonF88bSI/W9RDEguXvwI/AAAAAAAAFLQ/JFXRPzzC5fMbXZalwQdlxCwE8idIbMG3QCLcBGAs/s1600/Screenshot%2B2018-10-27%2Bat%2B6.50.31%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="795" height="272" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-GUvonF88bSI/W9RDEguXvwI/AAAAAAAAFLQ/JFXRPzzC5fMbXZalwQdlxCwE8idIbMG3QCLcBGAs/s640/Screenshot%2B2018-10-27%2Bat%2B6.50.31%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>IBD 50 指數基金(FFTY)週線圖</b><br />
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif;"><span style="color: purple;">CUP6ETF、MTUM 組合由於觸及 Zweig 4+10/30 沽出訊號,已全部清倉持有現金</span></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-weight: 700;">;GEM 繼續持有 SPY。</span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif;"><u>YTD回報:</u></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-weight: 700;">CUP6ETF -2.55%、MTUM Z4+10/30 +1.86%、GEM -2.16%</span></div>
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<br />CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-8094137188808791702018-10-20T12:55:00.000+08:002018-10-21T13:06:21.291+08:00繼續向下10月19日美股的動力股、細價股仍是重災區,IBD50 指數跌 2.8%、羅素 2000 跌 1.2%,兩者都無法收復10天線,羅素 2000收於10月調整以來的最低位。週二的反彈失敗,納指、標普挑戰重上 200天線失敗,兩者的50天線開始向下,表示中線走勢向下,技術走勢為壞。我以前持有的動力型 ETF:ARKK(以及相同系列)、IBUY、CIBR、PTH 等都穿 200天線。而 <span style="color: purple;"><b>Zweig 4+10/30 沽出訊號仍維持,IBD 訊號是 market in correction</b></span>。資金放棄動力型股票、進入防守性股票,PG 這種股票竟然 gap up 8.8%,MTUM 已低於 200天線。<br />
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美國國債已進入熊市,息率攀升。黃金突破向上,黃金和石油向上和股市(黃金、石油相關股票除外)有什麼關聯?其實我唔係太清楚。另外,分析咗會唔會對操作非商品類股票有幫助,我也不知道。<br />
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總而言之,美股的走勢與二月和四月最大分別是反彈的力量明顯為弱,大市和非常多的股票價格低於 200天線,蟹貨重重要收復並非易事。<br />
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目前有人估計:中美貿易戰 + 中國經濟結構問題 --> 中國經濟崩潰 --> 中國金融危機 --> 拖慢全球繼濟增長 --> 一齊衰退。另外的劇本是,目前股價走勢反映未來9個月後的經濟狀況,目前所謂「超乎預期」的業績將會是歷史。我覺得中國地產市場崩潰、債務危機可能會非常嚴重,情況太差亦有機會政局不穩,中國的資金退潮,無可避免影響金融市場。當然,每次重要調整、甚至熊市的劇本都是無可預料的。都係果句,股市於美國總統中期選舉前是否一定上升,可能會發生,亦可能不會發生。<b><span style="color: purple;">若無從判斷方向,我有兩種做法,第一種是退場不參予,另一種做法是好倉淡倉都做一些,那一邊容易贏利就是對的方向。</span></b><br />
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個人操作上,最衰還是不夠大膽,若然週二沒平掉 YY和 MOMO 的淡倉,今次贏利將好可觀。週二嘗試做少少好倉(AAP),結果失敗而回,感覺個反彈沒有什麼力量。週三、四開的 SQ、NVDA、BZUN、WTW 淡倉仍然維持。NVDA 10月19日破底,下一個支持位估計是二月至五月的低位 $203-210,會將平倉位不斷推低。SQ 在 sister stock PYPL 業績日爆升下都仍然下跌,目標是 200天線。BZUN、WTW 會跟住 20天線操作。個人本年回報於今週創了今年新高,可以咁講,我 8-9月的倉位很少,放棄了一段進取的升幅,換來今日平穏而不斷上升的 equity curve。如果九月底我重貨在手,十月多數措手不及。<br />
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif;"><span style="color: purple;">CUP6ETF、MTUM 組合由於觸及 Zweig 4+10/30 沽出訊號,已全部清倉持有現金</span></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-weight: 700;">;GEM 繼續持有 SPY。</span><b style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif;"><u>YTD回報:</u></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-weight: 700;">CUP6ETF -2.55%、MTUM Z4+10/30 +1.86%、GEM +1.86%</span><br />
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<br />CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-65808469795634639202018-10-13T12:10:00.001+08:002018-10-13T12:19:27.714+08:00美股穿 200 天線<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lAA8h0CdoVw/W8FTqG8iWsI/AAAAAAAAFJ4/b3s96NWTafAaLGuEWNTVvwxfpHkQYigawCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B10.08.28%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="263" data-original-width="497" height="331" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lAA8h0CdoVw/W8FTqG8iWsI/AAAAAAAAFJ4/b3s96NWTafAaLGuEWNTVvwxfpHkQYigawCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B10.08.28%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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美股本週的走勢惡劣,最明顯是納指、羅素2000指數確認跌穿 200天線,為 2016年 6月以來首次。IBD50 指數亦穿 200天線、IBD distribution days 出 market in correction 訊號、<b><span style="color: purple;">Zweig 4+10/30 沽出訊號</span></b>亦觸及<b><span style="color: blue;">(</span><span style="color: purple;">總體股票單週跌 >4%,並跌穿10和30週線)</span></b>。週五的反彈成交量偏低,納指仍無法收復 200天線。在週五開市時,看報導有超過三成的標普500 成份股低於高位 20%(市場解讀,如果熊市定義為高位跌 ≥20%,個股類推)。VIX 週四升至高點,投資者情緒回落(急跌如此,這屬正常反應),斬倉盤和止蝕盤暫止,週五反彈為預期之中;認為這浪跌勢已完,暫時言之尚早,大部份的股票、ETF 技術走勢嚴重破壞,回復需時(技術上的回復當然可以好快,但好少一兩日就完)。傳統智慧,重要次級調整有兩隻腳,熊市 ≥3 隻腳。<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f182O6n9I34/W8FWXGmaogI/AAAAAAAAFKE/CIhuoCirttAFB8HtMCbwlTK5epl2ZGyggCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B10.19.45%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="597" data-original-width="806" height="470" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f182O6n9I34/W8FWXGmaogI/AAAAAAAAFKE/CIhuoCirttAFB8HtMCbwlTK5epl2ZGyggCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B10.19.45%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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大眾最關注這是否熊市。如何定義熊市,眾說紛紜。話雖如此,道氏理論仍然有效,是否用其他較速食和簡單的方法另作別論。<br />
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傳統道氏理論屬技術分析之根本,執行技術分析操作者必須理解(可參看8年前拙作舊文、或拙作《財技模式》:<a href="https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2010/03/blog-post.html">https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2010/03/blog-post.html</a>)。<br />
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不過,理論歸理論,我是操作者,熊市對我的意義在股票價格於是否未來下跌機會遠高於上升,即趨勢是否向下。指數比最高位低 20% 這種定義,對我意義並不大。當中,實戰價值最高的指標,還屬 Stan Weinstein (SW) 四階段分析(<a href="https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2018/02/stan-weinstein.html">https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2018/02/stan-weinstein.html</a>),當下的美股仍屬 stage 2-3 (SW2-3)。但港股的恒生指數就不同,二月跌市後,已進入 SW3(綠框),六月進入 SW4(紅框),所以我在六月已認為港股進入熊市。<b><span style="color: purple;">操作方法:SW2時進取,SW3 時保守,SW4時防守。</span></b><br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4Zqaiu8Hcm4/W8FZ_nrJTJI/AAAAAAAAFKQ/lv2kVORU4akUMgcfXJfMxPTkS6zWXtA2wCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B10.35.11%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="802" height="270" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4Zqaiu8Hcm4/W8FZ_nrJTJI/AAAAAAAAFKQ/lv2kVORU4akUMgcfXJfMxPTkS6zWXtA2wCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B10.35.11%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MfZZQDn03Jo/W8FbJatCX5I/AAAAAAAAFKc/Tdhts2rGF0Y44rcH6MqSmuoyCHFtvJbdACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B10.39.56%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="196" data-original-width="498" height="156" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-MfZZQDn03Jo/W8FbJatCX5I/AAAAAAAAFKc/Tdhts2rGF0Y44rcH6MqSmuoyCHFtvJbdACLcBGAs/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B10.39.56%2BAM.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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要留意,牛熊之辨屬中長線大市的走勢,個股走勢可以相異。操作上亦應理解自己的風格,例如我做最多 30-60天持倉操作,我根據大勢,判斷出重要的次級走勢出現的機會,再看每檔股票的 setup ,逐個倉做好就能完成工作。這一浪其實我不用看什麼特別的指標,每個長倉都發現難以寸進(個別持倉做了近 50日都未有更大收獲),time-stop 又好、價格的止損又好,在十月第一週前已幾乎完全清倉。目前市場波幅像 2月或 4日巨大,看不清形熊,建議盡量旁觀,試圖撈底多數無益。我今年最大的贏利都是五月中後期建的倉,在正確的時候進取就可以,毋須任何時候都好進取。何謂進取亦無定義,我覺得動用 ≥70%的資金持倉已算進取,今年我只有好短時間超過 70% 持倉;另外,當我個別的持倉 ≥7-10% 虧損,或者由高位回落≥10% 仍堅持全倉繼續,我亦會視作進取。<br />
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聽太多消息或者留意其他指標的支節,會有助解釋現況,未必對 real-time 的操作有效;亦有機會令自己創作無謂的劇本,陷入偏見(bias)的陷阱,偏離客觀的技術分析。我會如舊無謂涉獵太多這些資訊。<br />
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本週個人操作方面,週四即市淡倉做了 HEAR 完全平掉、MLNX 平掉、EL 平掉一半,週五貼 20天線加了一些 YY的空倉,DG、EL 空倉仍維持。YY設了緊一些的止損。無論做淡倉或好倉,每個倉最高容忍的虧損永遠是 -1R,自從 3月TWTR 的意外後,暫時未出現多於 -1.3R 虧損的情況。雖然手上是空倉,但持續監察在這浪跌市仍保持強勢的股票,以及有無可以操作長倉的 setup,仍非常重要,注意力切勿被大市氣氛牽住走。<br />
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有人問一些期權的事,下圖為我四月時的貼文,略作參考。我並非期權專家,不主張散戶做複雜的操作, 複雜的操作多數勞而不獲。<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UBSt0rQjWy0/W8FqOi1LSxI/AAAAAAAAFKo/Qx5UxONYH349-S807YNFZ9EQUk8xWIPuACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B11.37.00%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="494" height="640" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UBSt0rQjWy0/W8FqOi1LSxI/AAAAAAAAFKo/Qx5UxONYH349-S807YNFZ9EQUk8xWIPuACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-10-13%2Bat%2B11.37.00%2BAM.jpg" width="506" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="color: purple;">CUP6ETF 由於觸及 Zweig 4+10/30 沽出訊號,會全部清倉持有現金</span></b>;MTUM 組合一樣會沽清持有現金;GEM 繼續持有 SPY。<b><u>YTD回報:</u></b>CUP6ETF +4.2%、MTUM Z4+10/30 +1.86、GEM +1.75%<br />
<br />CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-5692083971214659112018-10-06T12:29:00.000+08:002018-10-06T12:29:08.105+08:00納指穿50天線<br />
當今美股的標桿為納指,十月一日試高位失敗,十月四日放量穿 50天線,十月五日確認,自四月以來首次,近4-5週亦出現8個派貨日,目前水平離歷史高位 4.2%。之前領先的羅素2000指數,十月一日穿50天線,十月五日抵達 200天線,目前水平離高位 6.3% ,超賣狀況維持了一週。標普 500 觸及50天線。動力股的指標 IBD 50 (FFTY) 單週跌 6.8%。Investors intelligence sentiment 仍超過6成看牛,低於兩成看熊,於一月之時相同。港股和歐股已進入 Stan Weinstein 第四期一段日子;日股衝高失敗回落。<br />
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10年和30年美債息率突破高位(下圖)<br />
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照目前狀況,我看調整 15-20% 並非無可能,之前短倉輕易獲勝,那就不妨做多幾個看看效果。<br />
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個股操作,長倉持股全數擊中 back-stop,全部獲利了結,避免 let profits turn into loses 既窘境。短倉 BZUN 開了一週已有近兩成贏利,週四已平一半倉鎖定利潤。週五再開 YY、DG、MLNX 短倉。<br />
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Zweig 4+10/30 指標仍未觸及,CUP6ETF 繼續持貨。CUP6ETF 的回報和 IBD 50 跌幅差不多,下週會沽出 IBUY。<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">GEM 回報 +6.12%、MTUM + Zweig4+10/30 +7%、CUP6ETF +10.2%。似乎真正考驗會有未來兩三週出現。</span></span><br />
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<br />CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-42197812877308940582018-09-09T20:18:00.000+08:002018-09-09T20:18:52.819+08:00美股調整納指和標普連跌四日,成交量每日都高於平均,屬於 distribution。美股總體股票上週跌不足 1%,若用 Zweig 4+10/30 系統,並無沽出訊號。<br />
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持股方面,ANET 於9月4日擊中止損沽出,裂口突破後連跌四日,然後跌穿突破日即日的低位屬 violation signal,結果微利 0.5R,如果猶豫不沽,賺錢就會變輸錢。任何賬面有可觀贏利的股票,必須設 stop loss 避免任何虧損,是重要的操作原則。<br />
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另一隻是SPOT,到 8月底以為是不錯的 VCP,不料 9月5日就穿 50天線擊中止損,到目前為止反而變成一個穿50天線和頭肩頂走勢的 short sale setup。<br />
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其他股票仍持有,ECYT 調整至 50天線,離沽出位一步之遙。CHGG、CPRT、ISRG、SRPT 走勢尚可。<br />
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NFLX 在牛氣沖天之時,到50天線遇阻,SCTR 亦跌到低於 70,放入造淡之選。<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cF_FFGzU1nc/W5UL_biJ8tI/AAAAAAAAFHg/qTJudtGR3FMIVEe1d4dnvHtxXY-_gTnbQCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-09-09%2Bat%2B7.59.37%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="455" data-original-width="809" height="354" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-cF_FFGzU1nc/W5UL_biJ8tI/AAAAAAAAFHg/qTJudtGR3FMIVEe1d4dnvHtxXY-_gTnbQCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-09-09%2Bat%2B7.59.37%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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總括來說,大市有轉弱跡象,宜控制風險。牛市末段由於大家都害怕 party 完結,一有風吹草動就會有大幅拋售,波動會增加。技術上已經嚴重破壞的昔日股王,切勿留戀。<br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-weight: 700;">目前 GEM</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-weight: 700;"> 回報 +5.57%、MTUM</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-weight: 700;"> + Zweig4+10/30 +6.63%、CUP6ETF </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-weight: 700;">+16%。</span>CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-36682062173398923952018-08-26T19:47:00.000+08:002018-08-26T19:47:17.962+08:00大市創新高本週納指、標普和羅素2000指數都創新高,三大指數都破頂,升勢毋須懷疑。這幾個月的升勢,上升的成交量低,下跌日急而成交量高。所謂價量互動,價是首要考慮,假如懷疑大市成交量,或者界別表現、FAANG 的表現問題,而沒有參予,就會錯失五月以來的升浪。預測從非我主張的做法,根據實戰表現調節倉位,持倉表現好就加,持倉表現差就縮或者調轉做;這做法絕少會錯過市場的主要升跌。<br />
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我目前持有六檔股票長倉,ANET、ECYT、CPRT、CHGG、ISRG、SRPT。除了最後一檔屬週五新加之外,其他幾檔表現相當好。由於納指和中小型股指數領先,順理成章相關股票表現良好。<br />
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ECYT 是檔小型生物科技股,SCTR 長期處於 99的狀態,之前第一次買入時已講過。下圖藍箭咀為買入時間,紅箭咀為沽出時間。第一次操作的贏利大約 1.5-2R 左右,7月31日業績公佈日前幾個交量日沽清,業績後 undercut 50天線反彈,即 Minervini 所講的 tennis ball action ,又或者 Kacher 講的 undercut & rally,所以又要重新考慮進場的時間。成功企穩 50天線後,在 8月7日再次買進,之後幾日一週,此股波動異常低,結果順利突破。目前此股已離 50天線 15.7%,肯定不是好的買入的時機。<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OIEC4RO8akM/W4KFKMAFuNI/AAAAAAAAFGY/F0oITw1e7KMbUyxh7hQ_a9CA9V7SwdQtQCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-26%2Bat%2B6.44.22%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="457" data-original-width="817" height="352" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OIEC4RO8akM/W4KFKMAFuNI/AAAAAAAAFGY/F0oITw1e7KMbUyxh7hQ_a9CA9V7SwdQtQCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-26%2Bat%2B6.44.22%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">ECYT 日線圖</td></tr>
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ANET 是有人向我提起才留意,認真講是我的監察範圍的漏網之魚,八月中後看到此股後覺得值得留意。首先此股屬 Stan Weinstein stage 2 股票,二月後做了足足六個月的整固、五重VCP,去到 8月中波幅收窄,成交量變低,SCTR 改善向上(買入時 SCTR 70-75左右)。當然SCTR 低,股票有點穴的風險,但大市中小型股氣勢如虹,尤其網絡安全、雲端相關表現很好,不久將來有突破的機會偏高。還要一提,做六月中之後的 VCP 相比三月以來是 higher high and higher low,這表示股票有好的需求,十分重要。傳統技術分析而言,VCP 是可以向上或者向下, VCP 之前是 uptrend,理論上 VCP 後多數繼續之前趨勢。然而,假如波動和成交量收縮到極致的時候,股價在極固區域本身都無法向上,甚至接近主要整固的最低位,突破向下的危險就相對增加。 在VCP 之中買入,尤其非常接近 50天線買入風險較低,在 8月23日的 pocket pivot 買入都可以,但 8月 24日裂口突破後追,雖然符合 Kacher 的 buyable gap up 條件,但風險相對高得多。<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9WVAeBhy6VQ/W4KKkIK7HSI/AAAAAAAAFGk/60srWP1UlowWTWNpQzVrP7PpWzQIoxV5gCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-26%2Bat%2B7.08.34%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="1015" height="364" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9WVAeBhy6VQ/W4KKkIK7HSI/AAAAAAAAFGk/60srWP1UlowWTWNpQzVrP7PpWzQIoxV5gCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-26%2Bat%2B7.08.34%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">ANET 日線圖</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129;">目前 GEM</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129;"> 回報 +5.54%、MTUM</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129;"> + Zweig4+10/30 +6.76%、CUP6ETF </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129;">+14.14%。CUP 6ETF 下週一會買回 ARKW 。</span></span>CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-68103814813918382632018-08-11T12:05:00.000+08:002018-08-11T12:05:16.840+08:00審視指標效用8月10日標普和納指下跌,成交量增,納指連升 8日下,有回吐屬正常。NASDAQ 100指數,目前有 61% 的股票在 50天線上、67%的股票在200天線上。不過,其實指數連升日數、有幾多隻股票在個別的平均線上,跟以後的市況走勢其實有無相關?<br />
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下圖為納指100 近五年的連升/跌日數和股價對比圖。連跌日數對測市無任何作用,紅箭咀代表連跌日數低於 -3SD (即七日以上),完全跟之後的走勢沒有關係。藍箭咀為連升日數高於 +3SD(即八日以上),+3SD 和後市都無甚相關(之後可升可跌可平走),+4SD 好像有些關係,達至 +4SD 後(即連升 11日)往後都有一段可觀的牛勢,但這不常發生,可供觀察的次數有限,有bias 的機會。應用在8月,連升 8日係連 +3SD 都未到,不能為我們提供任何資料。SP500 類同,不過 SP500 無咁激,+3SD 已經好牛 (連升七日),近五年只有 2017年發生過 (下圖第二幅)。<br />
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下圖為 NASDAQ 100 、SP 500 的 50線上股票比率和股價的關係圖,其實無任何前瞻性可言,這只是一個市寬既 snapshot,並無任何前瞻性;200天線上股票比率相同,不贅。52 新高/新低數量亦差不多。<br />
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總而言之,市面上好多所謂指標,大部份只能表示目前市場的狀態是什麼,未必有前瞻性,而所謂具備前瞻性的,又要考慮是否有 back test 既 bias,故聽從專家意見前,要十分小心。我自己而言,當我無論做好或做淡都沒太多甜頭,縮倉小做,每次都能化險為夷;當有不錯甜頭後,才進取多做,不用太多時間已有好收獲。長期大量 expose 在市場而祈求一些可能虛妄的指標,往往沒有什麼得益。<br />
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其他市場表現參看下圖,取自美股隊長:<br />
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<br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">環球指數ETFs過去一週及一個月的回報</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">SPY - 標普500指數<br />QQQ - 納指100指指數<br />DIA - 道指<span class="text_exposed_show" style="display: inline;"><br />IWM - 羅素2000(細價股)<br />EFA - MSCI歐澳遠東( Europe, Australia, Asia, and the Far East)ETF<br />EEM - MSCI 新興市場</span></span></div>
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布蘭特期油價勢,走勢下行。<br />
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金價更不用多講,中長線頭肩頂已形成。<br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nN9td55cJJQ/W25WZloTmrI/AAAAAAAAFGI/lRdeh8gsQmQf-Edi0ZuZlFJBjyWvTp4uACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-11%2Bat%2B11.20.35%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="343" data-original-width="808" height="270" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nN9td55cJJQ/W25WZloTmrI/AAAAAAAAFGI/lRdeh8gsQmQf-Edi0ZuZlFJBjyWvTp4uACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-11%2Bat%2B11.20.35%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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個股/操作方面,TIF 週五早市的急跌 hit 中了我頭半的止損,之後微收低於 50天線,下週如果確認穿 50天線會清倉,一段強勁的上升走勢,收低於 50天線屬壞訊號。對比另一檔持股 TJX,六月至七月間做了五至六週密集整固,近期連升七日,走勢比較正面。CPRT 上 50天線後連升五日,ECYT 仍在整固,突破會考慮加碼。整體長倉保持 25%左右,在這個市寬麻麻地、震倉不斷、extended bull market 來講(當然 extend 完可以更 extend),太進取做好或做淡都無着數。<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">目前 GEM 回報 +4.24%、MTUM + Zweig4+10/30 +5.87%、CUP6ETF +11.75%。這三檔無任何操作。</span></div>
<br />CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-36706100897146773772018-08-04T13:36:00.001+08:002018-08-04T21:34:40.696+08:00業績期的波動本週美股普遍上升,納指升超過 1%、標普、羅素2000及整體股票升 0.7%。納指似乎氣勢如虹,QQQ 的 SCTR 升到 97、SPY 的 SCTR 升至 87、IWM 的 SCTR由高位 95 回落至 85。動力股ETF 例如 FFTY(跌 1%)、MTUM 本週下跌。納指YTD 回報已達 16%。IBD 神奇地上週轉咗大市 uptrend under pressure,過兩日又突然轉返 confirmed uptrend,唔係好明佢用什麼準則。<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ae-jPbucP0o/W2UczCiwLuI/AAAAAAAAFDA/qAcS-6bafb8sdgyyn2Z9O34LGZG9D00rQCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B11.25.44%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><b><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="800" height="280" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ae-jPbucP0o/W2UczCiwLuI/AAAAAAAAFDA/qAcS-6bafb8sdgyyn2Z9O34LGZG9D00rQCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B11.25.44%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></b></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>FFTY 日線圖。七月底會否是另一個 undercut & rally?</b></td></tr>
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日股7月初做了一個類似 undercut & rally 既走勢,7月中第二次闖高位失敗,目前在 trading range 中間。當然我不太鼓勵做預測的事,不過若要估的話,這種走勢我不會看好。<br />
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歐股方面,STOXX50 無法收復 50天線,德股、英股走勢仍然未能擺脫頹勢。MSCI 中國、港股破底,如我在 6月25日 facebook 所講,中港股市已進入傳統道氏理論所講的熊市。<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JKDu9uh2QK8/W2UbG1LXGMI/AAAAAAAAFCw/jJDIcHkYRocWyqj0i8baUauFLqJXxjtYwCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B11.17.10%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="204" data-original-width="497" height="162" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JKDu9uh2QK8/W2UbG1LXGMI/AAAAAAAAFCw/jJDIcHkYRocWyqj0i8baUauFLqJXxjtYwCLcBGAs/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B11.17.10%2BAM.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-r8YkdIBMUl0/W2UbPRegK4I/AAAAAAAAFC0/0eOkZmrw6sIXAEhvuRol5hjBRsKuf51NQCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B11.19.05%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><b><img border="0" data-original-height="347" data-original-width="815" height="267" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-r8YkdIBMUl0/W2UbPRegK4I/AAAAAAAAFC0/0eOkZmrw6sIXAEhvuRol5hjBRsKuf51NQCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B11.19.05%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></b></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>恒生指數日線圖,一浪低於一浪的熊走勢好明顯</b></td></tr>
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最重要還是看個別股票和動力 ETF 的走勢。大型股走勢最好是AAPL。而 GOOGL、AMZN、ALGN、NTAP 亦算表現較好。NFLX、FB、ABMD、TWTR 走勢已經破壞。中型股比較強的有 FTNT、SQ、HLF ;LULU、BURL 等在高位整固。不過要留意,近期好多 undercut 、大幅波動既走勢,這種走勢難於參予,舉例 HLF 的 undercut 好深(如果有持貨,亦無預知能力,俾人鋤緊果陣點同 TWTR區別?),亦有業績公佈日的考慮,根本無法做有效的交易。</div>
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在支持位波幅擴大屬危險的走勢,尤其在升勢或牛市已發展長時間的 late-stage 狀態之下,以及在業績期前後,這些走勢好易遭 whipsaw ,造成無謂的損秏。這不是看好看淡的問題,而是由於我們期望做一堆正期望值的低風險交易,如果沒有好的 setup 或市況配合,無論個市向好或向淡,都會白做。如下圖的 NFLX,我在藍箭咀的地方買入,紅箭咀的地方沽出,在7月17日這個業績公佈翌日的走勢下,巨量成交、undercut 50天線後收復、並收於全日最高位,這是否一個值得參予的 undercut & rally 走勢?</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0T7kCByIHAzbMaCK6oSu6kkeHEzTCGnH4qfnTnT00qoYA8lhsrVJsha2XjyV7ITL7SHUL1tHdw7Lmi2_07Q3rP7oLRPZkMSZ8C2GpE5IGxS-8QbOdsk2MmeQR1GCJfwZlFipMiT6lKzBe/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-08-04+at+12.03.13+PM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="850" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0T7kCByIHAzbMaCK6oSu6kkeHEzTCGnH4qfnTnT00qoYA8lhsrVJsha2XjyV7ITL7SHUL1tHdw7Lmi2_07Q3rP7oLRPZkMSZ8C2GpE5IGxS-8QbOdsk2MmeQR1GCJfwZlFipMiT6lKzBe/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-08-04+at+12.03.13+PM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>NFLX 日線圖。綠線為 VCP,藍箭咀為買入、紅箭咀為沽出位置。</b></td></tr>
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又例如下圖的 TWTR,7月6日我以為是一個緊密整固而買入,結果第二個交易日(7月9日)就一開市超高成交下跌,穿 20天線最後收復,這算唔算 undercut & rally?我當日的決定的趁早全沽,主要原因是,這種大波幅巨量成交的走勢係衰嘢的機會多過好嘢,其二是 TWTR走勢極佳時,尤其想做 power-play,好少會跌穿 20天線。結果兩週後就暴瀉。<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-74SstNfSayE/W2UnJ9zfnGI/AAAAAAAAFDg/Ceve1GW0U5gCbQvkpyGP1_GPys3U-c5ewCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B12.09.42%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="350" data-original-width="811" height="272" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-74SstNfSayE/W2UnJ9zfnGI/AAAAAAAAFDg/Ceve1GW0U5gCbQvkpyGP1_GPys3U-c5ewCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B12.09.42%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>TWTR 日線圖。綠線為 VCP,藍箭咀為買入、紅箭咀為沽出位置。</b></td></tr>
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下圖 HLF ,以為五月底的震倉再加六至七月的緊密整固已有個夠好的 setup,藍箭咀為買入位置,紅箭咀 3段止損都沽全中沽清,要跌到業績日(紫箭咀)才大幅反彈,老實講,這檔真的投降。</div>
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0YbSdgKToRI/W2UtEmifx8I/AAAAAAAAFDs/HpdpOfOzRbAxJP2Ev7uefUJuzREa3-iIgCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B12.24.04%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="348" data-original-width="817" height="270" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0YbSdgKToRI/W2UtEmifx8I/AAAAAAAAFDs/HpdpOfOzRbAxJP2Ev7uefUJuzREa3-iIgCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B12.24.04%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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下圖 LULU,藍箭咀位置買入, 7月17日做咗 pocket pivot,結果連跌 4-5日,屬買入後的 violation ,照紀律紅箭咀位置沽清。之後穿 50天線再反彈,8月3日話佢再做 pocket pivot 無話唔得,咁算唔算 undercut & rally?但我就會傾向觀望右邊會否做個 VCP,如果沒有,我就算數了。</div>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TmV7wZR99eo/W2UyRd0c1XI/AAAAAAAAFD4/MHWRkqvBKDwN5Bdc-N12T-3Qd3P38grtwCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B12.56.53%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="811" height="270" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TmV7wZR99eo/W2UyRd0c1XI/AAAAAAAAFD4/MHWRkqvBKDwN5Bdc-N12T-3Qd3P38grtwCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B12.56.53%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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下圖 SQ,7月29日見高位後,急跌至50天線,8月2日業績公佈後急彈,定義上是 pocket pivot,但急升急跌,還要是高位後的第一腳,都係選擇旁觀。目前情況與五月初出了兩隻腳、undercut 後出現的 pocket pivot 不同,而走勢上亦沒那麼 late-stage。</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pUKCWWIeX7I/W2U1CzJb_yI/AAAAAAAAFEE/a_9deJGTa7QuKpz_pNSxu1HfqzcgcwvdQCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B1.09.05%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="802" height="270" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-pUKCWWIeX7I/W2U1CzJb_yI/AAAAAAAAFEE/a_9deJGTa7QuKpz_pNSxu1HfqzcgcwvdQCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-08-04%2Bat%2B1.09.05%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
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動力 ETF 的走勢,例如 ARKK、ARKW、PTH、IBUY、XWEB 等等,走勢都好似,IPAY、FINX走勢就好似 SQ 咁。即係簡單而言,如下圖:</div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-upInsO9_nUM/W2U5fgzwU0I/AAAAAAAAFEQ/RSB6LnQUl20m23MUfEjrze2Ev3Jg3yk_gCLcBGAs/s1600/IMG_1659.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1298" height="320" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-upInsO9_nUM/W2U5fgzwU0I/AAAAAAAAFEQ/RSB6LnQUl20m23MUfEjrze2Ev3Jg3yk_gCLcBGAs/s320/IMG_1659.jpg" width="258" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-weight: 700;">目前 GEM 回報 +4.4%、MTUM + Zweig4+10/30 +5.14%、CUP6ETF +9.75%。這三檔無任何操作。</span></div>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-68745040561274996962018-07-29T15:12:00.000+08:002018-07-29T15:16:52.764+08:00失敗部位的特質本週納指跌 0.8%、羅素 2000 跌 1.9%(跌穿 50天線)、標普升 0.6%、整體股票升 0.3%。派貨日增加兩個,但舊的又已 expired;總括來說是之前跑贏的細價股、科技股回吐。而業績公佈期股價大幅波動,大型股票如 NFLX、FB、TWTR 大跌;亦有 GOOG、AMZN 表現偏穩。日股窄幅橫行,歐股突破 6月高位。<br />
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週二的回吐 hit 中唔少我設的 stop-loss 或 back-stop,週五試著開些長倉都無甜頭可言,NOW 即日沽出(之前設止損在 20天線)、CMG、FFIX 繼續持有,感覺8月非常波動,而動力ETF 好多都有穿 50天線的情況,做法盡量縮小部位,減少無必要的犯錯,目前長倉水平維持 30-40%。由於我估是 whipsaw 橫行市,做量少做,直至見到方向為止,開新倉都盡量細一些,有贏利才加倉。<br />
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目前 GEM 回報 +3.6%、MTUM + Zweig4+10/30 +5.28%、CUP6ETF 10.39%。這三檔無任何操作。<br />
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本週講一些買入後,如何判斷失敗。<br />
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<b><u>失敗部位的特質</u></b><br />
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<li>買入點出現後股價跌穿並收低於 20天線。</li>
<li>買入點出現後,連續幾個交易日下跌,股價多數收於即日波幅的下端。如連跌超過 3日以上,屬非常差的訊號。</li>
<li>高成交下跌,並有波幅變大的情況。</li>
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如果買入後出現股價低於突破點 (Minervini 叫這現像做 squad),而 stop-loss 沒觸及的話,可以多等幾天;而即日成交不大,有可能之後幾個交易日才跟上,並不一定代表失敗。而原本打算是 VCP setup 買入,買入後發現波幅增加,而股價仍無上升突破,即表示整固未完(即之前的 base 為 faulty),若波動太大,我有時會沽出離場待機再操作。假如股價在突破點附近窄幅波動,之後繼續突破的機會通常較高。但最終要記住,世上最好的 setup 都有機會失敗,如擊中止損或事情發展與自己之前計劃違背的話,一定要離場。無損或微損離場,再進場好容易;泥足深陷而被動捱打,往往會出現致命的決策失誤。</div>
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非常抱歉本週事忙未能提供附圖例子,有機會日後補上。</div>
CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-74033607443911493312018-07-21T11:12:00.000+08:002018-07-21T11:23:59.600+08:00再談小型股買賣要點先講大市,在特朗普再講加碼 5000億貨品徵稅之下,納指仍能保持 7800 點的高位、標普亦可維持 2800 點的六月突破點(下圖,紅綠橫線為阻力/支持位),似乎是訊價背馳現象,而納指正在進行像五月下旬般的緊密整固。這種緊密整固,似傳統技術分析而言,會解讀為延續之前的走勢,即上升趨勢。<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lHfftL6kVKo/W1KGwmyKiWI/AAAAAAAAFBY/GM0kYrXR7rwUpwwQKWM1aVvQK9Ykw2UYwCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-21%2Bat%2B9.03.10%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="810" height="270" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lHfftL6kVKo/W1KGwmyKiWI/AAAAAAAAFBY/GM0kYrXR7rwUpwwQKWM1aVvQK9Ykw2UYwCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-21%2Bat%2B9.03.10%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>納指日線圖</b></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_xE0Qtvvsig/W1KG-gkoMuI/AAAAAAAAFBc/PI9s2o6jaUcwgpLm_xfdQROk4_eZldBswCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-21%2Bat%2B9.05.37%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="805" height="270" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_xE0Qtvvsig/W1KG-gkoMuI/AAAAAAAAFBc/PI9s2o6jaUcwgpLm_xfdQROk4_eZldBswCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-21%2Bat%2B9.05.37%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">標普日線圖</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">港股(這裏用 FXI 做 </span><span style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">surrogate ,見下圖)走趨屬下行,相信無可質疑。反而日股、歐股找到支持,暫時 range trading 。</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ty0pHxrkPUo/W1KIZevcYcI/AAAAAAAAFBw/QH8R9yVF15U0amH006Q24P20b6SoUHSkQCEwYBhgL/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-21%2Bat%2B9.10.33%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="343" data-original-width="816" height="268" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ty0pHxrkPUo/W1KIZevcYcI/AAAAAAAAFBw/QH8R9yVF15U0amH006Q24P20b6SoUHSkQCEwYBhgL/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-21%2Bat%2B9.10.33%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">油在 6月11巨量下跌,破壞了上升趨勢,直至週末都無法修復,屬很壞的走勢,投資油價相關資產的話,在這個時候要警惕。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">自己個別股票操作方面,非常幸運,整體回報仍能跟隨指數突破6月高位。由6月高位 overload 變為淨短倉再變回接近 7成淨長倉,downside 只有 1%,而最後都能跟上指數闖高。操作方向好簡單,當長倉易賺錢就多數長倉,當短倉易賺錢就沽多些,當前明顯是長倉易做些(7月20日我再做多檔 CPRT 的長倉)。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">回報闖高最大貢獻是兩檔回報超過 3R 的小型股票 (ECYT、HEAR)。當然亦有失敗的部位,例如 USNA、DBX(最近的 HLF 都擊中頭半止損沽出了一半),但由於止損於微,賺錢的部位能夠補足有餘。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">今次再講小型股票的操作。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Turtle Beach (HEAR) 是遊戲音響電子類的小型股,年頭仍是蚊型股(即類似港股的仙股),到年中開始爆升。到七月初 stockcharts.com 開始出這股的 SCTR才偵察到,一出已經是 SCTR 99。此股的基本面我真係識條鐵,只要不是負債累累就好,盈利有大增長更佳。</span></div>
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3lsyguCSt64/W1KffjOb0wI/AAAAAAAAFCQ/gjnXjy6MUnYGDs4b1jvQkXMvHZFWvW6LgCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-21%2Bat%2B10.50.07%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="839" data-original-width="832" height="400" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3lsyguCSt64/W1KffjOb0wI/AAAAAAAAFCQ/gjnXjy6MUnYGDs4b1jvQkXMvHZFWvW6LgCLcBGAs/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-21%2Bat%2B10.50.07%2BAM.jpg" width="393" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">選此股是看中週線圖的 power-play 的急升旗型走勢(下圖綠框)。 再看日線圖(記住不要用 log scale),股價正好回調至10天和20天線,亦有成交收縮、收市價緊密等我喜歡的因素。股價到此階段已非蚊型股,可以納入買入名單。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">有幾位網友 subscribe M. Minervini,有討論過 MM 的買入推薦,我亦有看過他 Twitter,的確推薦不少小型股。我覺得接收這些推薦時要留意,不是說 MM的理念和技術有問題(我非常欣賞他的操作理念、原則和風險管理技巧),但要知道 MM 在賣服務,難免要多開不同部位去取得爆升股來賣廣告。有些推薦完全無基本面可言(但他的書主張要顧及基本面),亦有些項目則成交量極低,低至平均成交量只有幾萬股都有,如果有一堆 subscriber 同時 trigger 買入,股價 shoot up 並非難事,但之後無以為繼而反彈的例子似乎不少,這是要小心留意的地方。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">HEAR 在7月初的50天平均成交量已達 300萬股以上,撇除五月中的異常狀況,平均成交量每日都大約在 50-150萬股左右,不是太差。7月5日大市在貿易戰揭盅的背景下走高,當日貼住 10天線嘗試買入 3/4 部位(下圖藍箭咀),結果當日並無出現 pocket pivot。第二日收市價幾乎和買入當日一樣,成交再縮;到第三天才出現正式 pocket pivot (頭頂有綠線地方),這令我終於放心。翌日,股價回套至 10天線附近時補買另外的 1/4。之後順利突破,7月20日贏利已達 3.5R,$27.4減持了接近一半鎖定贏利,其餘止損位推高至買入點上,應該穩操勝券;由於部位仍在,確實止損位不便透露,但這類 power-play 我會以 20天線來做依據。此股 8月10日會公怖業績,業績期的處方法,請參看舊文(</span><span style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2018/06/blog-post_23.html">https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2018/06/blog-post_23.html</a>)。</span></span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><u>總結小型股留意的要點:</u></b></span></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: small;">不要跟隨別人貼士,Following tips from others is the quickest way to go broke。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">股價呈上升型態(Stan Weinstein stage 2)、大市是否配合。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Setup 和其他類型股票相同,照樣可用 VCP、Power play(急升旗型)、Pocket pivot、Wcykoff U&R 等。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">非蚊型股。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">公司低倒閉風險,並非債台高築。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">平均成交量最好不要太低,最好 50天平均每日成交量大於 50萬股,至少高於 30萬股。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">看日線圖不要用 log scale,看清楚波幅多少,然後決定投入注碼大小。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">由於下行風險大,絕對不可質疑止損。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">止損位要根據波幅決定,太緊的止損只會被震走,部位最好不要太大。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">有可觀贏利後要考慮鎖定利潤,讓餘下部位多些空間走盞。</span></li>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: small;">動力組合 (Since 2 Jan 2018):</span></u></b></div>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: small;">GEM:+3%</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: small;">MTUM + Zweig 4+10/30: +5.67%</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: small;">CUP6ETF (Since 5 Feb 2018) : +13.24%</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: small;">Reference: SPY (SP500 index) +5.7%, QQQ (NASDAQ index) +15.35%, VTI (US total equity) +6.41% </span></li>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><b><u>GEM:</u></b>根據GEM系統,繼續持有 SPY。</span></div>
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<u><span style="font-size: small;">MTUM+Zweig 4+10/30: </span></u></div>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: small;">繼續持有 MTUM。</span></li>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: small;">CUP6ETF (since 5-Feb-2018):</span></u></b></div>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">繼續持有 PSCH、PTH、CIBR、ARKW、IBUY、</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">IPAY。</span></span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-size: small;">可以翻看我們上次沽出的 WOOD,證明死牛 ETF 都可以好危險。平均 SCTR 跌穿80是危險訊號,若同時發生股價低於 50天線,屬好危險。</span></li>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-23823706477016395812018-07-15T13:42:00.002+08:002018-07-15T13:42:28.031+08:00本週回顧 (14-Jul-2018)<div style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">
<u><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />大市本週回顧:</u></div>
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<li style="border: none; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">本週美股反,納指創新高、標普破六月中高位、羅素2000 高位遇阻。出現界別輪轉,科技股、工業相關股跑贏細價股。</span></li>
<li style="border: none; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">上週末至本週初動力型的主題ETF 到達了較值得買入的水平。</span></li>
<li style="border: none; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">比上週,個股值得買的 setup 增加。</span></li>
<li style="border: none; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">中國A股反彈,但未擺脫熊走勢</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: times new roman, times, freeserif, serif;">日股重上 50天線,歐股仍未改善。</span></li>
<li style="border: none; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">布蘭特期油仍在高位 range trading。</span></li>
<li style="border: none; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">金價低位爭扎。</span></li>
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<span style="font-family: times new roman, times, freeserif, serif;">GEM、MTUM、CUP6ETF 都能輕鬆跑贏一般的港股組合。似乎半被動的主題ETF 再加 Zweig 4+ 10/30 系統,效果非常好。如果一月有參予市場的話,應可跑贏納指。</span></div>
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<b><u>動力組合 (Since 2 Jan 2018):</u></b></div>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">GEM:+3.03%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">MTUM + Zweig 4+10/30: +5.4%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">CUP6ETF (Since 5 Feb 2018) : +12.68%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Reference: SPY (SP500 index) +5.66%, QQQ (NASDAQ index) +15.74%, VTI (US total equity) +6.31% </li>
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6VEiMgk-zIA/W0rZwO4duRI/AAAAAAAAFBE/KiiFdhbuhjsdQ-37ymJx84suxnAvyRPlgCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-15%2Bat%2B1.20.46%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="171" data-original-width="792" height="134" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6VEiMgk-zIA/W0rZwO4duRI/AAAAAAAAFBE/KiiFdhbuhjsdQ-37ymJx84suxnAvyRPlgCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-15%2Bat%2B1.20.46%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><u>GEM:</u></b>根據GEM系統,繼續持有 SPY。</div>
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<u>MTUM+Zweig 4+10/30: </u></div>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">繼續持有 MTUM。</li>
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<b><u>CUP6ETF (since 5-Feb-2018):</u></b></div>
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<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">繼續持有 PSCH、PTH、CIBR、ARKW、IBUY、</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">IPAY。</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">見持股升咁多,個回報計算怪怪地(有讀者指出),果然是 excel 的 formula 設定問題,回報已修正。如有質疑,可自行回看一路以來的持股狀況自己計一次。</span></li>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-49022790459716727312018-07-07T14:47:00.001+08:002018-07-07T15:16:09.736+08:00生物科技股票投機、本週回顧<div style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
美股市場有一堆沒有盈利,不少都在做臨床實證的生物科技中小型股,贏可以贏到開巷,輸亦可以輸到趴街,波幅多數驚人,心臟功能偏弱者不宜參予,除非是內行人(認真講,好多醫生自己都唔明那些公司的藥物或療法)或內線人,否則不宜參予長線投資,我在此分享一下自己這類股票的操作法。</div>
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首先,參予的時機在於 1)生物科技界別的氣氛良好,界別普遍跑贏。 2)自己的倉位已有贏利在手,可以有冒險的空間。</div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">Setup 方面,首選是 VCP </span><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><a href="https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2018/04/volatility-contraction-pattern-vcp.html">https://nodeadcow.blogspot.com/2018/04/volatility-contraction-pattern-vcp.html</a>。當然,股價在 50天線上、relative strength 要強、股票走勢是 Stan Weinstein stage 2等是必要前提。基本面方面,要債務水平很低,不會有破產風險。</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">股價圖要記得不要用 log scale,因為不少這類股票由仙股升上來,用 log scale 觀看,會低估近期的股價波幅(我個人的 trading rule 是股價低於十美元的股票、近 50天平均成交量少於 30萬股的股票盡量不參予),看完日線圖再看週線圖確認 setup 。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">用實例解說會較清楚。最近做了隻 Endocyte (ECYT),有跟我 facebook 專頁或 twitter 的讀者已知。這檔是沒有盈利的生物科技公司,做抗癌治療的臨床研究。最近 ECYT 的</span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> Lutetium-177 [<span style="line-height: 1.6363em; position: relative; top: -0.5em; vertical-align: baseline;">177</span>Lu]-PSMA-617 核子放射療法(主治斷絕男性賀爾蒙無效的前列腺癌)通過了 phase 2 的臨床實證 (</span><span style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="https://www.fda.gov/ForPatients/Approvals/Drugs/ucm405622.htm">https://www.fda.gov/ForPatients/Approvals/Drugs/ucm405622.htm</a>),由於療效顯著,得到了美國臨床腫瘤科學會年會的奬項</span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">,實在難得。(要捱過 phase 2 只有 20%的新藥可做到,要過 phase 3、4,只有 5%的藥物過關)。還有,這公司最近再搞多條 line (chimeric receptor T-cell [CART]) 做骨癌療法,會在18年第四季開始 phase 1,這些估計就是股價由垃圾價爆升的原因。當然最重要是,這公司現金充足,債務極低。(但IBD 既 stock screen 肥佬,見下圖)</span><br />
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<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rdk7VJnb5jM/W0Bi6xa6OGI/AAAAAAAAFAo/ylLMNvUD3Ks_6awzUyQXhIrKc2W90jh0QCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-07%2Bat%2B2.50.52%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="618" height="640" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rdk7VJnb5jM/W0Bi6xa6OGI/AAAAAAAAFAo/ylLMNvUD3Ks_6awzUyQXhIrKc2W90jh0QCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-07%2Bat%2B2.50.52%2BPM.jpg" width="454" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">然後看這個界別的ETF,例如 BBC 6月28日見底,7月3日已重回50天線(下圖1),SCTR 95 左右,這界別的動力屬強。 再看納指,6月28日開始出現守住 50天線之兆,7月3日再試 50天線,不但守住,還即日收於最高位(下圖2)。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">在大市無想像中咁差下,更加要 screen 有無值得做長倉的對象,週末放假期間無意中發現這檔 ECYT(下圖3),有齊之前講過的條件,6月22日有一日成交特別高,但收市價於當日 trading range 上端,亦在 20天線上,我視為牛勢,而支持位就在那些地方。就在7月3日早市時段,此股開高,升過 10天線,成交增加,以為會突破,不突破也可能做個 pocket pivot,於是貼住 10天線開始買入半部。半部的倉位,可以容忍大約 12-14% 的波幅,屬合理建倉的水平。以大約$14 的買入位,-12%是 $12.32,比六月低位的 $12.38 更低、比 50天線低 6%,再多 2% 的 cushion,若遭震走,看錯市的機會相信高於操作失誤。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">買這類股票我必用限價盤,以避免突然個 spread 好大買高好多,另外,部位大小要根據風險胃納、股價預期波幅去定。波幅考慮一般以VCP 最末段為定,ECYT 最近高低波幅大約是 12%左右,那買入後就會預期股票大約有這水平的波動,止損位亦以此為據,設得太緊易被震走,設得太寬會冒不必要風險。原則是,若股價超出預期波動,即為異動,異動的方向與自己設想相反,即自己看錯市,那就要止損離場。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">7月3日買入就做咗燈神,股價收低。如我常講,做燈神並不可怕,學習之道在於如何做燈神都贏錢。由於即日走低,雖無突破也無 pocket pivot,但股價表現仍然在正常狀態之內,即未有異動,不同的只是自己蟹咗,但未到止損位,這情況常有發生,繼續持有多觀察幾天是正路做法。特別要提,書講 pivot point 、突破位、pocket pivot 等,未發生事前係無從得知,買入時當日會否發生自己預設那種情況,當日未完係唔會知道。如上述所講情況,pocket pivot 不成,當成偷步買入再觀察幾天,只要風險能控制,是可接受的做法。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">到7月5日假期後開市,ECYT 再開高,成交增加,而生物科技股氣勢的確不錯,在前3日的高位再設 buy-stop double position至整部,此新加部份的止損會好緊密,因為這是加碼賭突破,沒有突破即看錯就會撤走,預計是微損,但如買中回報會不錯。結果 buy-stop 在 $14.3-14.4 左右買入,然後走勢非常順利,順利得少少難以置信,於是將半部的止損推高至買入點上,另一半維持,整體贏利已越 1R。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">7月6日 ECYT 再開高走高,這股近幾日開市都是買盤強勁,再升 6-7%,基於風險控制、股價波動、以及股價高於 50天線 20% 、兩日升兩成等諸種原因,沽出一半,鎖定贏利,再將其餘倉位的止損價推高於整體平均買入價上,確保有利可圖。當然,仍有突然大 gap down 穿越止損位的可能性,希望不會發生啦。由於部位尚未 close,確實止損位恕不透露,敬請原諒。這類較高風險的投機,預期要有高回報,或者好短時間有好理想的回報(將倉位的 exposure time 盡量縮短),否則不宜介入。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">希望藉此實例,向一些對此類投機有興趣的朋友,分享如何控制風險。若然對這些 clinical trial 的藥業、生物科技公司有興趣投資,亦不想冒比較大的風險,ETF 例如 BBC、或者女股神 Catherine Wood 的 ARKG 都屬可以考慮之列。</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RPvMa9XLtyM/W0BQItQnK2I/AAAAAAAAFAQ/PMu41uv-sBwEWC7tFa5Se_2jEVndp2MOgCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-07%2Bat%2B1.30.57%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="735" height="352" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RPvMa9XLtyM/W0BQItQnK2I/AAAAAAAAFAQ/PMu41uv-sBwEWC7tFa5Se_2jEVndp2MOgCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-07%2Bat%2B1.30.57%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>圖1:Virtus LifeSci Biotech Clinical Trials ETF (BBC) 日線圖和 SCTR </b></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gH7JMZMoOts/W0BRKw_wvWI/AAAAAAAAFAc/A9PWZM5miSw8Zah1q6wS3UEXWsfaxh1wACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-07%2Bat%2B1.35.21%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="723" height="272" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gH7JMZMoOts/W0BRKw_wvWI/AAAAAAAAFAc/A9PWZM5miSw8Zah1q6wS3UEXWsfaxh1wACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-07%2Bat%2B1.35.21%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>圖2:納指日線圖</b></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Hj88UH6otGI/W0BJ7AljMxI/AAAAAAAAE_8/nUx8oU1NMO0EaofRgcHlfk2KQIxr1jMtACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-07%2Bat%2B1.03.34%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="741" height="440" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Hj88UH6otGI/W0BJ7AljMxI/AAAAAAAAE_8/nUx8oU1NMO0EaofRgcHlfk2KQIxr1jMtACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-07%2Bat%2B1.03.34%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>圖3:ECYT 日線圖</b></td></tr>
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<u>大市本週回顧:</u></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">本週美股反彈,3大指數都能守住關鍵位置 (道指守住 200天線、標普守 50天線、納指守 3月高位),羅素 2000 接近歷史高位。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">本週健康護理股、公用股、科技股、小型股跑贏。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">VIX 回落至 13.37、put:call ratio 在低水平。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">上週末至本週初動力型的主題ETF 到達了較值得買入的水平。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">個別股票開始出現一些值得買入的 setup。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">貿易戰新聞變舊聞,新聞變事實都是平倉為主,觀察進一步變化。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">中國、香港股票跑輸美股。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">歐洲股市似在 Stan Weinstein stage 3-4 的階段。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">非美股環球股票ETF 年回報已開始跑輸整體債券ETF,屬熊表現。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">布蘭特期油仍在高位 range trading。</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">金價跌至去年十二月低位反彈。</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u>動力組合 (Since 2 Jan 2018):</u></b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-weight: 700;">
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">GEM:+1.5%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">MTUM + Zweig 4+10/30: +3.21%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">CUP6ETF (Since 5 Feb 2018) : +3.4%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Reference: SPY (SP500 index) +4.09%, QQQ (NASDAQ index) +13.17%, VTI (US total equity) +4.9% </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
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<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<b><u>GEM:</u></b>根據GEM系統,繼續持有 SPY。不過開始要留意,AGG 已開始YTD 跑贏ACWX。</div>
<div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<u>MTUM+Zweig 4+10/30: </u></div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">繼續持有 MTUM。</li>
</ul>
</div>
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<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<b><u>CUP6ETF (since 5-Feb-2018):</u></b></div>
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<ul style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">繼續持有 PSCH、PTH、CIBR、ARKW、IBUY、</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">IPAY。</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">Facebook:</span><a href="https://www.facebook.com/Chart-reader-CUP-341819709665553/" style="color: #6e6e6e; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; text-decoration-line: none;">https://www.facebook.com/Chart-reader-CUP-341819709665553/</a><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">Twitter: </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Chart_CUP" style="color: #6e6e6e; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; text-decoration-line: none;">https://twitter.com/Chart_CUP</a></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-31866192878582913632018-07-01T16:58:00.001+08:002018-07-01T18:01:58.970+08:002018 首半年總結(1-Jul-2018)<br />
先看下圖,對比美股三大指數:納指、標普500、羅素2000指數,由2011年9月至今回報。<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TGtQuicaejA/Wzg-IfbD6xI/AAAAAAAAE_M/G842E1hj_Ko7ncwQC3rrAnzDIcawAHgdACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-01%2Bat%2B10.33.41%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="1315" height="264" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TGtQuicaejA/Wzg-IfbD6xI/AAAAAAAAE_M/G842E1hj_Ko7ncwQC3rrAnzDIcawAHgdACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-01%2Bat%2B10.33.41%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>納指、標普500、羅素2000 七年回報比較</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ss89cDokbqY/Wzg-bjHys5I/AAAAAAAAE_U/3Ym-LZaiusUM0pl2_jgCcwie0oCuF2-3wCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-01%2Bat%2B10.37.07%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="1286" height="270" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ss89cDokbqY/Wzg-bjHys5I/AAAAAAAAE_U/3Ym-LZaiusUM0pl2_jgCcwie0oCuF2-3wCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-01%2Bat%2B10.37.07%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>納指和恒生指數七年比較</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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現在的問題是,回報的指標 (benchmark) 要用什麼?道指不用多講,其代表性已不復存在。沿用標普 500 指數?還是用更能代表新時代的納指?以我看來,benchmark 的精神在於,如果我將錢放在一個可投資的股票指數,什麼都不做,回報會否比積極操作 (active trading) 優勝。以納指這 20年來經歷過兩個極端的榮枯相生周期 (George Soros boom and bust cycles)來算,表現如此出色,用作回報指標,當之無愧。當中背後的理論,例如新經濟與舊經濟交替,什麼才代表股票投資市場等理論,當然我也有自己看法,但無謂在此深究。<br />
<br />
第二幅圖是納指和恒指比較,七年來回報納指領先恒指 160%(連標普500 都領先恒指 88%)。由 1997年開始計,儘管有 2000-2001年的科網泡沫爆破,納指回報仍領先恒指 400%,以指數回報差來講,極之巨大。中美市場實力和活力之差距,非常明顯。如果有一筆錢做被動投資,選一個指數來買,選擇亦都好明顯。<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YsSV_DMjTvQ/WzhNz_rgNCI/AAAAAAAAE_g/u3BqTKDv4VchGaKh3T-jXO5dt9P2KHoyACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-01%2Bat%2B11.42.45%2BAM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="1284" height="270" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-YsSV_DMjTvQ/WzhNz_rgNCI/AAAAAAAAE_g/u3BqTKDv4VchGaKh3T-jXO5dt9P2KHoyACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-07-01%2Bat%2B11.42.45%2BAM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>納指由1997年與恒指比較</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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以前買賣股票佣金高,亦麻煩,但隨時代進步,尤其在互聯網年代,網上交易,不單止世界零距離,佣金亦超便宜,操作介面功能亦佳。香港本土經濟 70-90 年代的高速增長期已過,而來港上市中資企業,質素高的實為小數,企業管治、造假的問題嚴重。故本地投資者,就算做被動投資,也理應放眼世界。做主動投資,佣金不再是大問題,亦可預先設定指令(五花百門的指令都有),就算美股在睡夢中開市,亦能操作自如。<br />
<br />
當然,人就係懶和貪,人性永遠不變下,又有以下問題:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>主動操作的投資能否戰勝被動投資?</li>
<li>半被動操作能否在相對少付出而獲得比以上兩者更佳的回報?</li>
</ul>
<div>
我再寫這個 blog,其中一個重要目的,就是尋求以上問題的答案。</div>
<div>
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<div>
主動投資與被動投資之間是一個光譜 (spectrum),由最被動的,買入指數然後死牛持有數十年,然後是主動一些每月檢討操作的 GEM 系統,到再主動一些的 MTUM + Zweig 4+10/30 系統,最後到頗為主動的 CUP6ETF系統。</div>
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<div>
仍然要討論主動投資的必要,除了貪之外,最重要就是解決下行風險(downside risk)的問題。重要的例子:如果我有一筆錢由 1998年 開始投資,死牛不放十年,到 2008年突然等錢用,然後發現,十年後竟然沒有回報。另外,有一個時點到將來某一個時點,我如何知道一定會上升?一定不會下跌?我舊作就用了日本90年代股市之例。認真說,我怎會知道當前的納斯達克指數不會是 90年代的日本股市?</div>
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<b>GEM(</b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">Global Equities Momentum</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">)</span> 系統提供了一些方法,減低了被動投資下行風險,同時結合了一些動能投資、全球投資的概念。每月操作的問題是敏感度太低,由於股票在次級調整 (Dow's Theory 的 Secondary correction)跌勢通常好急,而我們亦不能事前知道那是一個次級調整還是熊市,從而進一步減低下行風險以達到更佳回報,<b>MTUM</b> 系統的每週檢討和配合 Zweig/Stan Weinstein 的簡單測市系統,希望可以進一步解決這一問題。另外,假如再花多一點時間的 <b>CUP6ETF</b> 呢?能否有更好表現?</div>
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GEM系統今年表現沒怎麼值得一提的地方(除非閣下的回報負得較多,或者投資港股),GEM屬長線系統,以半年的表現評價有欠公允。</div>
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MTUM 這半年連標普都不能跑贏,的確令人失望。更主動操作的 CUP6ETF 反而做得好些,由 2月5日開始計,目前回報是 +2.8%(同期納指是 +3.72%、標普500是 <span style="color: red;">-1.58%</span>)。最大 downside CUP6ETF 是 <span style="color: red;">-3.9% </span>(納指是 <span style="color: red;">-6.4%</span>、道指是<span style="color: red;"> -6.5%</span>)。其他一些內置動能選股的ETF,包括 IBD 50的 FFTY、甚至一些內置閃避熊市功能的ETF,回報亦不特別傑出。(Market Wizard 之一的 David Ryan 剛推出的ETF code: EASI 聲稱具上述功能,發行不久都難逃跌市) 。似乎更精挑細選的主題動力ETF 組合更能跑贏「內置」的動力ETF,而 downside 要比完全被動投資穩定,則要另設指標操作。 Zweig 4+10/30 系統似乎能解決部分問題,它比 GEM 的那種對比一年動能,或者一些市面聲稱具防守性的 ETF 那種用 200天平均線作轉換原則的做法較為敏感,亦沒有 IBD distribution/follow-through days 或 Kacher MDM 那樣過敏而有太多假訊號。根據有訂閱 Kacher MDM (Market Direction Model)的朋友告知,MTUM 和 CUP6ETF 都明顯跑贏 MDM。當然,要知實效,還需更長的時間。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="color: #990000;">動力投資再配合相對低的下行風險,是戰勝市場的關鍵,而我交易的方向一直根據這個原則來完善。</span></b>一直以來,我閱覽大量投資類書籍,由葛拉漢、巴菲特到Jesse Livermore、Richard Wyckoff、奧尼爾,再去到 day-trading、swing-trading 等,技術分析由傳統 tape-reading、chart-pattern,到technical indicators、陰陽燭、波浪理論諸如此類都學過,經過一輪「斷捨離」的過程後,最適合自己而又恒之有效的,是由 Jesse Livermore、Richard Wyckoff、William O'neil 體系建立出來的一套投資理念方法。這套方法近十年由 Morales & Kacher、Mark Minervini 接力改良和提倡,這兩個團體現成的書都有大約 6 本,提供了非常淺白易明的方法基礎。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
個股的交易要大量的精神和時間投入,並非每個人都適合,當然做得好的話,成效會比被動投資高得多,否則有誰會去做?要做得好,有學習的過程,根據 Mark Minervini 之前的訪問,他要花 6年時間不斷操作,才開始有良好的回報。如本欄左上角的曾國藩箴言所講:<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">第一要有志,第二要有識,第三要有恒,三者缺一不可。</span></div>
<div>
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<div>
2018年這種 whipsaw market 最值得講「恒」。假如風格是做中線趨勢投資的話,今年是極之挫敗的一年,據我觀察,多數都沒有什麼值得一提的回報。好多人遇到挫敗就轉新的方法,或者搜尋另類的方法,又或者在死牛和轉身之間搖擺不定。但其實一套技藝要多年的磨煉,才能運用得當。要知道真正的弱點所在,一定要具備恒心,不停記錄自己的想法和做過的交易,定時回看自己每筆賺錢或蝕錢的交易,做些總結,然後修正和改善。這過程重覆數十至幾百遍,並持之似恒,自己的觸覺、能力、耐心等等,都會不自覺提升,而同一套方法和理念,即使並無改變,回報亦會有所改善。好多交易者都會自我檢討,但如果檢討的方法不對,只會弊多於利,年復一年,並無寸進。</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
我絕不會做什麼展望或預測,而我的看法並不會影響市場,正確的態度應是觀察市場,由市場告訴我要做什麼。例如造淡的 setup 出現遠多於做好的,而造淡賺錢易於造好,即市場告訴我那是個熊趨勢,如此類推。最重要是,自己有沒有持之似恒,保持平靜的心境去細心觀察市場。</div>
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<div style="background-color: white; font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u>動力組合 (Since 2 Jan 2018):</u></b></div>
<div style="background-color: white;">
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">GEM:<span style="color: red;">-0.3%</span></li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">MTUM + Zweig 4+10/30: +2.03%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">CUP6ETF (Since 5 Feb 2018) : +2.8%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Reference: SPY (SP500 index) +2.52%, QQQ (NASDAQ index) +10.62%, VTI (US total equity) +3.17% </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u>GEM:</u></b>根據GEM系統,繼續持有 SPY</div>
<div style="font-weight: 700;">
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<u>MTUM+Zweig 4+10/30: </u></div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">繼續持有 MTUM。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif;">
<b><u>CUP6ETF (since 5-Feb-2018):</u></b></div>
<div>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">繼續持有 PSCH、PTH、CIBR、ARKW、IBUY。週一開市買入</span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF(</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "times" , "freeserif" , serif;">IPAY)。</span></li>
</ul>
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<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
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<u><span style="color: #073763;"><b>後記:投資方法的斷捨離</b></span></u><br />
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<u><span style="color: #073763;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EbAJdpWR9pY/WziLmAKp3hI/AAAAAAAAE_s/tv9gGKbdwk8AUjQ4O_Dpqmbyaw5bMg80gCLcBGAs/s1600/%25E6%2596%25B7%25E6%258D%25A8%25E9%259B%25A2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1132" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EbAJdpWR9pY/WziLmAKp3hI/AAAAAAAAE_s/tv9gGKbdwk8AUjQ4O_Dpqmbyaw5bMg80gCLcBGAs/s320/%25E6%2596%25B7%25E6%258D%25A8%25E9%259B%25A2.jpg" width="225" /></a></span></u></div>
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<span style="color: #073763;">由於孩子不斷長大,家裏空間不夠用,早前被迫清理家中書櫃,真的要實行「斷捨離」,否則開多個迷理倉都不夠用。以投資書計,真的藏了不少書。以前抱住「將來可能會讀返」、「將來可能有用」的心態,什麼都儲藏起來。當我發現自己在批評太太過多衣衫鞋襪之餘,原來自己也好不了多少,於是下定決心身體力行,執行斷捨離,立下榜樣。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #073763;">舉些例子:巴菲特相關的書藉,除了英文版的巴菲特寫給股東的信,全部捨棄;葛拉漢的兩大巨著都捨棄(反正將來要看的話,到圖書館借就好了);以前好推崇 Pat Dorsey 的書都捨棄;Philip A Fisher 的 Common Stocks Uncommon Profits 捨棄;Ken Fisher 的書除了 Super Stocks、The only 3 Questions that Counts、 The Wall Street Waltz 外全棄;Templeton、Jim Rogers 吹捧新興市場和所謂商品投資的書全棄; John Bogle 的 Common Sense Investing 捨棄; Trader Vic 第二集捨棄;其他分析時局的書都捨離;港版的書除好友贈送的書及美股隊長手冊外全棄(抱括林森池、東尼的書全棄;黃國英那本《決勝在期權》有留起,並非因為內容,而因書的文筆佳亦好親切,和其他書不同)。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #073763;">當發現有些書的邊有發霉,更加了解這些書真的十年沒有再看。同樣質料的書,有常看的絕無此現象,例如 Nicholas Darvas 的 《How I Made $2,000,000 In The Stock Market》、William O'neil 《How To Make Money in Stocks》、Gerald Loeb 《The Battle For Investment Survival》、Edwin Lefèvre《The Reminiscence of Stock Operator》、Lars Tvede《The Psychology of Finance》、Market Wizards 系列等就歷久常新,沒有蟲沒有霉。在捨棄雜物的過程,反省自己和更了解自己。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #073763;">投資的方法上,自己在金融海嘯後已完全放棄做個股的基礎分析(任何做法都一樣,完全不懂和透徹地懂多數沒殺傷力,半桶水、似懂非懂最危險),確當的基礎分析超高難度,亦無法敵得過內線人,散戶投資者完全沒有任何優勢。Technical Indicators 除了最簡單的 ATR計算和 RS line 外,基本上捨棄。最近亦開始嫌陰陽燭雜訊過多開始捨棄。傳統道氏理論在實際操作上開始捨棄,並非道氏理論有問題,而是它在 30-60天操作中意義並不太大,這亦簡接解決了好多人爭辯牛市熊市影響操作的問題。Business Cycle 的分析捨棄、經濟數據的分析捨棄、不同市場包括股票外的 Correlation 大致上捨棄、Top Down 主觀分析捨棄、大部份新聞的接收捨棄(只留意訊價背馳作環境證供)。</span></div>
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<span style="color: #073763;">將佔據注意力的東西大幅減少後,才有更多時間專注在對我回報影響最大的東西,例如領導股和 watchlist 股票的走勢和setup、分析以往自己的交易日記、trading pattern、risk management technique、買賣技巧和時機等,然後表現不斷改善。而在決定放棄某些東西的過程中,反省自己當下所需和缺點的關係,從而更加了解自己,少走歪路。</span><br />
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<span style="color: #073763;">最後一提是為何我不喜歡股票做「長線投資」。最大問題是難於驗證成效,而一旦出錯,並無修正空間(例如我投資了5-7年,甚至 10-20年才知道仆街,那如何去修正?);亦由於投資宗數少,亦好難驗證成功與否是靠運氣還是眼光;無法解決這個問題,股票長線投資仍欠說服力。</span></div>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-27627985626207660522018-06-30T16:51:00.000+08:002018-06-30T17:03:32.247+08:00Selling Rules <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
要事先聲明,以下所講原則只限於捕捉 30-60 days 主要走勢的交易,長線投資不在討論範圍。當然,沒有沽貨變蟹,而被迫長線投資的 involuntary investing 並不鼓勵。</div>
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一定要明白,正常人只會沽得太早,或者沽得太遲,而大家都要承認自己是正常人,而接受這兩個情況,前者屬 sell in strength (即上升時沽出),後者屬 sell in weakness (下跌時沽出),只要有錢賺,兩種做法均可。賺到盡的貪念,是交易者必須克服的心魔。</div>
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<b>沽出持貨手鬆還是手緊,要<span style="color: red;">綜合</span>考慮以下幾個因素:</b></div>
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<li>自己的 entry risk 和自己的平均回報 。</li>
<li>該股是否重倉。</li>
<li>該股的走勢階段,經歷了幾多重整固。</li>
<li>當前的大市氣氛和走勢如何。</li>
<li>該股當前價格是否過火。</li>
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<b><u>Entry risk (R) 與自己平均回報:</u></b></div>
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<li>交易長勝,講來講去都是風險回報比例:如果交易者平均回報比平均虧損大,成功的比率就不須太高就能長線贏錢; 反之,每筆交易賺錢相對虧損不多,則要高成功率才可以長線贏利。每個交易者的風格不同,承受的 entry risk 不同,平均回報亦不同。不過,不論任何人都好,都鼓勵用 entry risk (R),來計算和記錄自己的交易風險、回報 和虧損。做過幾百單交易,就可以知道自己的風格和表現。</li>
<li>止損位盡量不超過 -1R,任何股票觸及止損一定要沽出離場,相信這交易鐵律不用再多講。</li>
<li>舉例:假設自己平均賺錢的部位有 2R 的水平,而股價咁好升過了 2R 的水平:</li>
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<li>至少盡量將止損位推高至 breakeven 的水平。</li>
<li>若有重倉、大市不明、股價過火、該股經歷多重整固等因素,可考慮沽出若干部位,又或者設 back-stop 在 2R 的水平,保證該部位至少有自己平均水準的回報。</li>
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<li>個人而言,若部位贏利超過 3R,必將 stop-loss 置於買入點上,亦會沽出部份持貨或設 back-stop 鎖定贏利。</li>
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<b><u>該股是否重倉:</u></b></div>
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<li>如果自己正常部位佔全倉是 10% 的話,持有的部位如佔15% 的話,沽貨可以手鬆一些,不太肯定就沽一些鎖定贏利。</li>
<li>如果部位並不大,則有更多空間讓股價遊走。</li>
<li>永遠要記住,倉位過大會令交易者情緒出現偏頗和波動,這才是最危險的事。</li>
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<b><u>該股的走勢階段,經歷了幾多重整固:</u></b></div>
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<li>Stan Weinstein stage 2 的股票當然再上升的機會大些,懷疑在或就會進入 stage 3 or 4 的,當然會手鬆些沽貨。</li>
<li>如果該股已經歷到第 4-5 重的整固 (base),轉為熊走勢的機會較大,有懷疑會手鬆些沽貨。相反,若股票只是第 1 或 2 重整固,則可以容忍多些。(下圖為波音週線圖,綠框為 base,2016年出現 Wyckoff undercut & rally 後出現 Stan Weinstein stage 2 走勢)</li>
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6vDs3aKsW1c/Wzcw82AcUDI/AAAAAAAAE-o/KjcPCEHpMJkr4SXseKC3w0VRQAn2pwZ6wCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-30%2Bat%2B3.25.37%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="1279" height="270" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6vDs3aKsW1c/Wzcw82AcUDI/AAAAAAAAE-o/KjcPCEHpMJkr4SXseKC3w0VRQAn2pwZ6wCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-30%2Bat%2B3.25.37%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>當前大市氣氛和走勢如何:</b><br />
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<li>當大市屬強勢以及在升勢早段,通常可以忍手些;但大市並不強勢以及升勢已展開了頗長的時間(像2018年中的情況),可以鬆手些沽貨。</li>
<li>舉例:美股牛市已由 2011年發展至今,2017年更加有一大段直線上升的大浪,大市 2018 年 4月以來的升勢,無出現二月低位的絕對的 Wyckoff undercut & rally (只有 200天線的 undercut & rally,即極有可能沒有出現「清洗太平地」的恐慌與再洗牌的現象,股票仍有好多在弱者手中),另外整段升浪於上升日的成交量都偏低,而上升過程亦無多天的絕大升跌股票比例,上升的界別亦較狹窄、由細價股領軍,再配合全球幾乎都跌到熊市的情境下,「花開堪折直須折」,屬正常反應,沽貨自然較鬆手。</li>
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<b>該股價格是否過火:</b></div>
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<li>沒絕對準則,視股該股的歷史波幅而定,不過一般而言,股價高於 50天線 30-40% 以上,或高於 10天線 20%以上,多數會回吐或整固,屬「人性永遠不變」的市場心理現象。</li>
<li>由於我希望捕捉 30-60天的重要價格走勢,而 50天移動平均線為一般市場交易者極重視的指標,所以股價波動以 50天線做主軸來觀察非常有效。(我個人而言,永不做 50天線下的長倉,永不做 50天線上的短倉。)</li>
<li>我自己傾向股價升過 50天線 20% 沽一半,升過50天線 40%沽清 (或者設 back-stop)。舉例 $100 是 40% above 50d MA,但股價升至 $105,我將 stop-loss 放在 $100。</li>
<li>下圖為例:(包括大型至小型股)</li>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-spw_j2o3kqU/WzdC5FrgVWI/AAAAAAAAE-8/6xpa23ZENOQzl1Hmi57DsrPTBbD3FfPeACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-30%2Bat%2B4.34.42%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="398" data-original-width="934" height="270" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-spw_j2o3kqU/WzdC5FrgVWI/AAAAAAAAE-8/6xpa23ZENOQzl1Hmi57DsrPTBbD3FfPeACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-30%2Bat%2B4.34.42%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>NFLX 日線圖</b></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JxtUOyAH4cw/WzdC404t0VI/AAAAAAAAE-4/V_YiDhavjVAilg0AB126bRaWeHi7-8E0gCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-30%2Bat%2B4.39.38%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="925" height="270" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JxtUOyAH4cw/WzdC404t0VI/AAAAAAAAE-4/V_YiDhavjVAilg0AB126bRaWeHi7-8E0gCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-30%2Bat%2B4.39.38%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>SHAK 日線圖</b></td></tr>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dbhH8nnSz74/WzdC48KVn3I/AAAAAAAAE-0/ulkPc6mwHYAkY8wOOkPCEOVV0-jUYc-fgCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-30%2Bat%2B4.43.56%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="931" height="272" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dbhH8nnSz74/WzdC48KVn3I/AAAAAAAAE-0/ulkPc6mwHYAkY8wOOkPCEOVV0-jUYc-fgCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-30%2Bat%2B4.43.56%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">LULU 日線圖</td></tr>
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總結:以上沽出的因素,要<span style="color: red;">綜合考慮</span>,顧全大局。CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-69602055050476754052018-06-28T18:14:00.000+08:002018-06-28T18:14:20.415+08:00成功部位的特質等待了適當時機,買入一個部位之後,如何觀察這檔股票會否成功?根據 Mark Miniervini 所講,<b>成功的股票有以下特質:</b><br />
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<ul>
<li>出現「完成到底」的走勢 (follow-through action)</li>
<li>上升日數多於下跌日數</li>
<li>上升成交量大於下跌之時</li>
<li>收市價多在當日波幅上方</li>
<li>調整即彈</li>
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<b><u>例子:Netflix (NFLX)</u></b></div>
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<b>這檔股票為 2018年的倍升股</b>,但在 2017年7月至12月卻沒有什麼表現,其間一直橫行整固,直到 2017年12月28日才出升穿 50天線的 pocket pivot。(下圖紫色箭咀),由於有一段長時間的整固,亦有VCP 型態,屬不錯的 setup,這個 pocket pivot 是很好的買入點 。</div>
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這個買入點後,<span style="color: magenta;"><b>出現數天的上升日,成交增加(頭頂有紅線的地方),這就是所謂的 follow-through action</b></span>。</div>
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而綠色框的地方,清楚顯示,大 gap up 前的 15個交易日,有 12日上升,只有 3日下跌,<span style="color: #38761d;"><b>上升日數多於下跌日數</b></span>。</div>
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另外亦不難發現這段升勢之中,<b>上升日成交量明顯大於下跌日</b>。大部分收市價都在即日波幅上方。</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gsNfeIsUUl8/WzStDLdoKpI/AAAAAAAAE-Q/osLVsIxasrceuDs1bKYGI_dOgZCsNGZ0QCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-28%2Bat%2B5.40.07%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="945" height="352" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gsNfeIsUUl8/WzStDLdoKpI/AAAAAAAAE-Q/osLVsIxasrceuDs1bKYGI_dOgZCsNGZ0QCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-28%2Bat%2B5.40.07%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>NFLX June 2017 - Feb 2018 日線圖</b><br /></td></tr>
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到2月和 3月跟隨大市的調整,<b><span style="color: blue;">下跌後好快收復失地,跌穿 50天線亦好快回復</span></b>。下圖藍色箭咀和框。這段期間,NFLX 做了個大約 10週的 VCP 整固,然後再發力爆上。</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jJNBHQ6aG1k/WzSx0PTNNRI/AAAAAAAAE-c/NhRFn2U6uRkfBCRtHLFy4yrtV_LxZ4JFQCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-28%2Bat%2B5.57.33%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="941" height="354" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jJNBHQ6aG1k/WzSx0PTNNRI/AAAAAAAAE-c/NhRFn2U6uRkfBCRtHLFy4yrtV_LxZ4JFQCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-28%2Bat%2B5.57.33%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>NFLX Nov 2017 - Jun 2018 日線圖</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-14070316147918092062018-06-24T09:10:00.001+08:002018-06-24T09:10:44.375+08:00升勢遇阻(24-June-2018)<br />
<b><u>大市:</u></b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>納指近20個交易日出現 5個派貨日(因為某些日子涉及期指、期權結算或指數換馬因素,計算有主觀判斷成份,可能和 IBD 不同),屬大市升勢受阻之兆。</li>
<li>本週細價股、生物科技股、醫療股跑贏。自主消費股開始有些拋售。</li>
<li>美國市場情緒牛多於熊,Put: Call ratio 偏低。</li>
<li>ETF 方面,Catherine Wood 主理 ARK 系列的 ARKW、ARKK、ARKG 走勢好強,後兩檔受惠於生物科技股發力跑上。其他強勢的主題 ETF 推介:IBUY、FINX、SKYY,但仍然升得過火,未到買入時機。主題 ETF 的買入法跟個股有些不同(雖然 Morales & Kacher 話係一樣,但我並不同意),突破追入注定失敗。做法應該是,先看大市(例如 Zweig 4+10/30 指標),再看ETF 的SCTR 是否高於 90,再看股價,最好貼位 50天線買,如果大市不錯,至少要貼位 20天線買。好多動力強的 ETF 一旦股價超過 50天線 10-12%左右,多數有回吐或有一些會橫行,最好等待時機才買進。做不做逢高沽出的操作,因人而異,豐儉由人。</li>
<li>金融股走勢好弱。XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF)其實已在我造淡之選的 watchlist,就來出現最值得造淡的 death-cross setup。</li>
<li>其他地區:歐股似乎已在 Stan Weinstein stage 3-4。日股守住 10週線。MSCI 中國、香港交易大型中國股票穿哂 10/30週線,A 股走勢之劣都不用再多講。環球主要市場、新興市場表現差勁,中國出現債務危機的新聞、貿易戰等消息之影響力超出我理解的範圍。美股能否獨善其身,真的不知道。</li>
<li>油價反彈至 50天線,未能穿越。金價繼續尋底。</li>
<li>債息 yield curve 未倒掛,但長短債息差收窄。</li>
</ul>
<div>
<b>總結:</b>似乎大市升勢遇阻,美股能否繼續保持全球最牛市場地位(目前已到通街 average Joe 都知既地步,弱者走哂去美國市場搵食),我有好大戒心,未來一兩週的發展好關鍵。</div>
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<div style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />動力組合 (Since 2 Jan 2018):</u></b></div>
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<div>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">GEM:+1.1%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">MTUM + Zweig 4+10/30: +3.99%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">CUP6ETF (Since 5 Feb 2018) : +3.48%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Reference: SPY (SP500 index) +3.83%, QQQ (NASDAQ index) +12.98%, VTI (US total equity) +4.65% </li>
</ul>
</div>
<br /><div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>GEM:</u></b>根據GEM系統,繼續持有 SPY</div>
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u>MTUM+Zweig 4+10/30: </u></div>
<div>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">繼續持有 MTUM。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>CUP6ETF (since 5-Feb-2018):</u></b></div>
<div>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">繼續持有 PSCH、PTH、CIBR、ARKW、IBUY。週一開市沽出 WOOD,由於無可投資項目,暫持有現金。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br style="background-color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;" />CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1167458664913531443.post-27332894716165878092018-06-10T17:13:00.000+08:002018-06-10T17:18:58.240+08:00重溫「訊價背馳」<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif;">
本週大市保持在高位,納指第二次超越高點,即 higher high x 2,兩次或以上的創高位,假突破的機會大減。標普保持突破點,道指由波音接力蘋果,領軍追上突破。</div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK3FdQOGdF59G-MY_HHIN0Byjii8ciSTuA1RaDg16A4sb1LANV8O2XmHZAsOZbQL0gIUTeoM5TmHJhSQ9ThkES_OdFbjs56t7-jbE_Hw7S-Y1yhcELydyeyZfhEZ9gJHbQ5SUicEnbK7mt/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-06-10+at+4.43.16+PM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="1269" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK3FdQOGdF59G-MY_HHIN0Byjii8ciSTuA1RaDg16A4sb1LANV8O2XmHZAsOZbQL0gIUTeoM5TmHJhSQ9ThkES_OdFbjs56t7-jbE_Hw7S-Y1yhcELydyeyZfhEZ9gJHbQ5SUicEnbK7mt/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-06-10+at+4.43.16+PM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>納斯達克指數日線圖</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZvzIiTehh18/Wxzkx0XI2SI/AAAAAAAAE48/uhmeoFufwP0TiaHYFkqjPp7e-hnyiVdLACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B4.43.32%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="1268" height="274" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZvzIiTehh18/Wxzkx0XI2SI/AAAAAAAAE48/uhmeoFufwP0TiaHYFkqjPp7e-hnyiVdLACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B4.43.32%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>標普500日線圖</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WyWH1O6EyHc/WxzlTm5H43I/AAAAAAAAE5I/j-bQYfbP1eIy6TgYO27ivM0Xy-Hg3PbPACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B4.45.43%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="1266" height="274" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WyWH1O6EyHc/WxzlTm5H43I/AAAAAAAAE5I/j-bQYfbP1eIy6TgYO27ivM0Xy-Hg3PbPACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B4.45.43%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>道指日線圖</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif;">
個別股票的走勢凌厲,中型股、標普500大型股、中國大型股跑贏。界別方面自主消費股跑贏、公用股跑輸。太陽能股走勢恐怖,例如 FSLR(下圖),SEDG亦由高位回落 24%,圖表的 set-up 屬造淡之選類型。</div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7zF_mdSYlxA/WxzkGtAjZ9I/AAAAAAAAE4w/0xRYnGopVngBFt474O6aLubXo4k_oL2qQCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B4.40.35%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="1236" height="282" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7zF_mdSYlxA/WxzkGtAjZ9I/AAAAAAAAE4w/0xRYnGopVngBFt474O6aLubXo4k_oL2qQCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B4.40.35%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">FSLR (First Solar) 日線圖</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FrZUIPIbxTg/WxzkGo42pUI/AAAAAAAAE4s/qatbeE_SvK4fjhjvs8EOtAwWa8yptHJ6ACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B4.40.13%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="546" data-original-width="1230" height="283" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FrZUIPIbxTg/WxzkGo42pUI/AAAAAAAAE4s/qatbeE_SvK4fjhjvs8EOtAwWa8yptHJ6ACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B4.40.13%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>SEDG (SolarEdge Technologies)日線圖</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">以下幾檔是今年幫我賺最多錢的股票,留意它們的 SCTR 長期高企接近頂峰(下圖有SCTR line)。NTAP 屬階梯式走勢,故用分段式買賣、用 Wyckoff undercut & rally 可以增加回報,而傳統奧尼爾式的突破追入、下破沽出的做法的話,將會輸到想切腹。</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bEQKJEy65i0/Wxzplk-ezqI/AAAAAAAAE5Y/YcDppAl3jtALYxULIQEL8DhPK1IjZy1sgCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B5.01.36%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="1275" height="294" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bEQKJEy65i0/Wxzplk-ezqI/AAAAAAAAE5Y/YcDppAl3jtALYxULIQEL8DhPK1IjZy1sgCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B5.01.36%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>SQ (Square) 日線圖</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-A_O9ZuRtX8A/WxzplmE-ehI/AAAAAAAAE5c/NF21IQ3Xg7Qp7O_CI2PmAyVrfAO3vhTSACLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B5.02.10%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="628" data-original-width="1314" height="304" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-A_O9ZuRtX8A/WxzplmE-ehI/AAAAAAAAE5c/NF21IQ3Xg7Qp7O_CI2PmAyVrfAO3vhTSACLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B5.02.10%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>NTAP (Network Appliance) 日線圖</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2XQ0luf12ag/WxzplnAMQRI/AAAAAAAAE5U/j8DF2F4qYHUfNkS31RJHEBYKwOFWm1OdgCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B5.02.44%2BPM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="1261" height="322" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2XQ0luf12ag/WxzplnAMQRI/AAAAAAAAE5U/j8DF2F4qYHUfNkS31RJHEBYKwOFWm1OdgCLcBGAs/s640/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-06-10%2Bat%2B5.02.44%2BPM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>NFLX (Netflix) 日線圖</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #1d2129;">下週會有好多消息:G7會議、聯儲局議息、美韓峰會、北美貿易談判、歐央行會議等,市場傾向觀望。消息滿天飛,交易者並不需要知道真相,分析上只需要辨認訊價背馳有否出現。以下是我六年前舊作的其中一個章節,由於市場人性不變,幾十年來這些原則基本維持,不妨重溫一下。</span></span></div>
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<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><u>訊價背馳</u></span></div>
<div style="font-family: "times new roman", times, freeserif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b>訊,即是消息的意思。訊價背馳之意,即是消息和股價走勢相反之現象。</b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s1"></span><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s1">不論是什麼消息,在市場上只有四種消息:好消息、很好的消息、壞消息、極壞的消息;而市場的反應只有三種:升、不動、跌。如果大家不是經濟學家,而只是靠炒賣糊口,消息本身好壞實非我們最關注之事,市場對消息的反應才是我們最應該集中觀察的。我們亦要留意,在市場上,新聞即是舊聞。發放了出來而我們在報紙或者電視新聞上看到的消息,是二手資訊,之前一早已有很多魔神大戶、內線人知道這些消息,並已經行動。</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">有好消息就升,有壞消息就跌,而升跌程度和消息好壞程度相符,那沒有什麼特別,通常只是本身趨勢之延續。為何是趨勢之延續?因為若是轉勢,主導市場的是老早就洞悉實情之魔神大戶(比一般大眾要早得多),他們的動作肯定不會和消息同步。</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">倘若消息和市場該有的反應背道而馳(</span><span class="s3"><span style="font-size: small;">Divergence</span></span><span class="s1">),那就十分值得我們注視。</span><span class="s3"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">講個牛訊價背馳(</span><span class="s3"><span style="font-size: small;">Bull-divergence of news</span></span><span class="s1">)故事:</span><span class="s3"><br />
</span><span class="s2"><br />
</span><span class="s3"><span style="font-size: small;">2011</span></span><span class="s1">年</span><span class="s3"><span style="font-size: small;">10</span></span><span class="s1">月,股市已跌了好一陣子,壞消息頻出,一時有歐洲強國主權評級被降、一時又傳中國經濟有機會硬著陸、一時又希臘的債務到期面臨違約。股市跌跌不休,跌到某個令人痛心疾首、滿街鮮血、連長線投資的老師都鼓吹禁止沽空,市場在絕望之際,開始有「超賣的技術性反彈」出現。</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">接著,壞消息繼續,例如某國家級大銀行在市場無法融資面臨倒閉而求救、歐洲一些國家的評級遭調降,而其他強國的評級被調為負面展望、市傳中國的樓市開始暴跌、並出現企業倒閉潮──有老闆跑去自殺等等。股市有一些震盪,但仍然沒穿之前的低位,反而那個「超賣的技術性反彈」繼續,股市卻在一片壞消息中不跌反升。市場對壞消息沒有反應,甚至背道而馳,是一個很重要的訊號。</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">然後又過了幾天的震盪,市場出現了救市的傳聞,歐洲央行減息和加印銀紙、歐盟增加救市基金規模、希臘削債一半(</span><span class="s3"><span style="font-size: small;">50% Haircut</span></span><span class="s1">)、中國的總理跑去有老闆自殺的地區視察然後話政策應該「適時微調」等等。忽然之間,水深火熱的地獄見到曙光(但其實魔神大戶和內線人已一早知),那個「超賣技術性反彈」彈得更加勁,一個星期大市的升幅達高單位數字百份比至低雙位數。在這個時候,偶然有些壞消息,例如剪頭髮也要建議公投、近期的經濟數字轉弱之類等等,短暫跌了一跌,話咁快又升返,最後仍然是升。</span><span class="s2"><br />
<br />
</span><span class="s1">故事講完,總結牛訊價背馳有幾個形式出現:</span><span class="s3"><br />
</span></b></span></div>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s4"></span><span class="s1">面對很壞的消息:</span></b></span></li>
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s4"></span><span class="s1">反應輕微,只是跌很少,甚至不跌,這已經屬牛;</span></b></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s4"></span><span class="s1">有相對強的跌幅,但極快速就跌幅收窄,甚至單日轉向,這也是牛。</span></b></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s4"></span><span class="s1">很壞的消息一出,只跌幾分鐘就已快速上升,那是很牛。</span></b></span></li>
</ul>
<li class="li1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s4"></span><span class="s1">對壞消息不跌反升,或者跌幾分鐘至一兩個小時已經回升,那都是牛。</span></b></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s4"></span><span class="s1">升勢中穿插好消息,而市場對好消息加倍回應,這是確認牛勢。</span></b></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s4"></span><span class="s1">升勢中穿插壞消息,但市場反應不大,跌幅低於升幅,時間亦沒上升時長,亦是牛表現。</span></b></span></li>
<li class="li1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s4"></span><span class="s1">有時在壞消息出現之前,會有一些沒有任何消息的強勁「技術性反彈」。 </span></b></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s1"></span><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="p3">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s5"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;">熊訊價背馳</span>(</span><span class="s1">Bear-divergence of news</span><span class="s5">)<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">,<span style="font-size: small;">即是將以上情況倒轉,如此類推。</span></span></span></b></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s1"></span><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span class="s1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b>因此,當聽到好壞消息都好,不論自己持有什麼倉位,第一件事是保持冷靜,先觀察市場對該消息如何反應,然後就觀察所得的資料進行分析,最後就調整自己倉位作應變。</b></span></span></div>
<div class="p2">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s1"></span><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="p1">
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: small;"><b><span class="s1">若然衝動就市場的即時反射(</span><span class="s3"><span style="font-size: small;">Knee-jerk reflex</span></span><span class="s1">)胡亂起舞,會很易中伏,或者左一巴右一巴。我們要記住的是:消息日日變,但人性永遠不變。</span></b></span></div>
</div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
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<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-size: 14.85px; font-weight: 700;">
<b>==================</b></div>
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<b><u><br /></u></b></div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<b><u>動力組合 (Since 2 Jan 2018):</u></b></div>
<div style="font-family: "Times New Roman", Times, FreeSerif, serif; font-weight: 700;">
<div>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">GEM:+1.91%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">MTUM + Zweig 4+10/30: +5.4%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">CUP6ETF (Since 5 Feb 2018) : +3.2%</li>
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">Reference: SPY (SP500 index) +4.66%, QQQ (NASDAQ index) +12.17%, VTI (US total equity) +5.28% </li>
</ul>
</div>
<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>GEM:</u></b>根據GEM系統,繼續持有 SPY</div>
<div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u>MTUM+Zweig 4+10/30: </u></div>
<div>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">繼續持有 MTUM。</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><u>CUP6ETF (since 5-Feb-2018):</u></b></div>
<div>
<ul style="line-height: 1.4; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0.5em 0px; padding: 0px 2.5em;">
<li style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0.25em; padding: 0px;">繼續持有 PSCH、WOOD、PTH、CIBR、ARKW、IBUY。</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
CUPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10132648712120744761noreply@blogger.com8