2013年10月20日星期日

Trading in the Zone

Mark Douglas 的 "Trading in The Zone" 講過,很多人喜歡做 trading,原因是可以自己「當家作主」,想點就點;但吊詭的是,成功的 trader 要講求紀律,自由反而是致命傷。

世上任何人的預測都會出錯,而且經常出錯,故自己的意見也不例外。Average Joe 買賣只顧上望空間,卻忘記潛在損失,而損失往往可以好嚴重。事實上,我們經常損失。要長期維持穩定的贏利,先要消滅嚴重損失的可能性,並一早預期潛在損失必會出現(這是 Nassim Taleb 所講 Anti-fragile 的基本功吧)。在風險之中贏得勝機,我認為機械化的操作遠勝所謂分析預測。

美國債務上限問題煙消雲散,美股標普五百指數破頂,港股亦離破頂一步之遙。領先股票率先向上突破,我毫不猶豫對 watchlist 上具備買入訊號的股票增持(不理會那檔股票之前是否蠢到被震走),並將止蝕位推高。自己計過數,假如不幸,自己持有的所有股票均觸及止蝕,應仍有雙位數字回報;若中頭奬,持倉中那些指數成份股或者上市多年的「老朋友」,有一兩隻竟是「青蛙王子」,也不會見紅。不求成為投機神童,只求穩定回報。左度有度,今年都是個好年。

總而言之:

  1. 盡量不沾手老千、邪股,就算聽到消息他們「改邪歸正」,也要記住市場有好多選擇。賺少咗唔緊要,最重要切勿輸到訓街。
  2. 保持謙卑,切勿過份自信。自己所有含 human factor 的操作都可能出錯,任何意見均可為錯 until proven otherwise,要用操作規則保障自己。
  3. 摒棄股王思維(其實我在敝作《財技模式》都講過),毋須為自己遭震走股王懊悔,只要大注買中幾檔會升三幾成的股票,而其他部位很少損傷,甚至沒有損傷(小賺小蝕互相抵銷),回報已很不錯。目標要合乎現實條件,因為錯失股王,陷入hindsight bias,而動輒啟動 buy-and-hope 思維,極之危險。
  4. 輸錢好多時只是自己操作執行問題、紀律問題、或者是心理陷阱、對機會率/expected value 等概念未能掌握的問題,而非自己的操作規則和工具問題,更非自己對市場理解不足的問題,檢討時應針對以上問題,收獲遠大於不斷尋找新的工具和方法。自己每讀完一本書,廢書應馬上忘記,是有用的話,理應牢記當中重要的內容,並消化而成自己知識和智慧的一部份,否則只是浪費時間。


7 則留言:

  1. CUP SIR 為什麼不發表近日政府和 HKTV之間市場熱話 , 本人也很喜歡看你分析時局

    HANG

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 鍾祖康幾句說話已經總結了目前的情勢:

      只要有2000輛車在中環馬路慢駛或停駛,香港電視必即獲發牌;
      只要有4000輛車在中環馬路慢駛或停駛,香港必即獲雙普選。
      即使少至500輛,也有癱瘓香港的潛力。
      至於癱瘓地鐵,更加容易,幾十人就夠。

      香港人年年月月哭哭啼啼,說沒普選,沒電視看,可以怪誰?

      刪除
  2. 澳門股有D似拋物線+老鼠尾。

    回覆刪除
  3. 沈大師突然由牛三論轉軚去得好淡,佢在FACEBOOK中說(12號) :

    "經過作日的急升,此刻大家宜認真檢討自己的倉底風險情況,要減磅降風險就在今明兩天,但仍未可做淡。正如在節目中所講,最後一升會否夭折,還是遟來的春天,個了在摸索中,但幾肯定美股已近尾聲,這是兩難。博與不博,這是風險與回報之數。據夢境顯示,下周會是A股及港股最後一升,但本週三之後,美股高危。"

    CUP兄,你點睇?

    回覆刪除


  4. Searching for mesothelioma lawyer - You can begin your search on the Internet or in the yellow pages. However, your local or state bar association, and Martindale-Hubbell Law Directory (found in most public libraries) will give you narrower search and help you find your mesothelioma lawyer a whole lot faster. The Martindale-Hubbell Legal Network has a database of over a million lawyers and law firms in 160 countries. This service evaluates lawyers based on peer reviews. Their website, Mesotheliomalawyerx.us has a helpful lawyer locator service and will explain the rating system.

    How do you select your mesothelioma lawyer - The Oklahoma Bar Association has put out excellent guidelines regarding choosing an attorney. They state that "Selecting a lawyer is a personal matter. You must judge which particular attorney will be best for you. Before making a decision, however, you may want to contact several lawyers or law firms to gather some comparative information.

    When choosing a lawyer, keep practical considerations in mind: the lawyer's area of expertise, prior experience and reputation, convenience of office location, amount of fees charged and the length of time a case may take. A lawyer's communication skills are another factor. Willingness and ability to talk to you in language you understand and responsiveness to your questions will influence how well informed you are about the progress of your case.

    It is advisable that you select an attorney with whom you feel comfortable. These preferences may guide you in selecting someone with whom you feel most comfortable.

    It is important that you trust the lawyer you hire -- and that you believe he or she will do the best job possible in protecting your legal rights. But keep in mind that most lawsuits and other legal work are not "sure things." You should be cautious of an attorney who guarantees results. No lawyer can be expected to win every case, and sometimes the best legal advice may not be exactly what you want to hear”. For health safety, consumer alerts and finding The Best MESOTHELIOMA LAWYER In Your Place Area Here Bellow:
    Alabama Mesothelioma Attorney

    Asbestos Lawyer Mesothelioma

    Chicago Mesothelioma Lawyer

    Houston Mesothelioma Lawyer

    Mesothelioma Lawyer

    Mesothelioma Lawyer Baltimore

    Mesothelioma Lawyer Boston

    Mesothelioma Lawyer Directory

    Mesothelioma Lawyer Los Angeles

    Mesothelioma Lawyer Seattle

    New York Mesothelioma Lawyer

    Philadelphia Mesothelioma Lawyer

    Washington Mesothelioma Lawyer

    West Virginia Mesothelioma Lawyer

    回覆刪除